Chris Herz: Another spasm of irrational and outrageous violence is certain, the only question is when?

VHeadline's Washington DC-based commentarist Chris Herz writes: There is in the alternative media much speculation as to just when the USA will attack Iran. Some, like Chris Floyd, seem to think this attack is imminent. Not being a fly on the wall in the Pentagon I cannot do more than speculate on this matter myself.

I could be quite wrong, but I don't believe that such a dunderheaded move is about to happen.

For one thing, while executive officials dissenting from this attack have clearly been removed from command positions, persons such as now-retired Admiral Fallon, powerful figures from the Congress remain opposed.

These people for the moment are content to continue funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a few murder raids elsewhere, but have made clear their opposition to any further and massive expansion of the war. Congressmen such as Rangel or Conyers come to mind.

Elementary military prudence would demand the total suppression of the Mahdi Army in Iraq before attacking Shiite Iran. Despite some success in Basra and the walling-off a la Gaza of the Shiite ghetto of Baghdad, Sadr City, these processes in the colony are far from complete.

Then, and most importantly, insufficient troops are available for the occupation of Iran's western province of Khuzestan, site of most of their oil production. This province is hundreds of square kilometers, and it would have to be occupied to the summits of the surrounding mountains in order to be exploited. I cannot see how this could be done without at least another 100,000 ground troops.

Iran's long littoral on the Persian Gulf would have to be militarily neutralized as well. This would demand constant naval activity and extensive Marine raiding forces, which last are fully engaged elsewhere.

• Then too, the approaching summer weather in this region of the world is not conducive to successful military operations.

Even the loonies in the Pentagon and the White House flinch from the massive international opprobrium which they would face from any attack, especially one using even small nuclear weapons, unless they could manage to win the prize of control of Iranian oil. Without this the venture is not worth the costs.

What is happening is that appropriations have been made to fund rebellious groups in the south and in the north of Iran. And there already are clandestine US forces operating in these districts. Diplomatic pressures will continue on other nations willing to trade with Iran or even on those willing to maintain normal relations with that country.

The constant barrage of corporate/state propaganda against Iran has the effect of both screening the daily atrocities underway in Iraq, and of convincing the US public, and particularly European leadership, always willing to sup on the scraps from Massa's table, that the Middle East adventure is at least tolerable.

But I am almost 100% convinced that outright war will be avoided until after the US elections in November and until the incoming president, whoever he or she will be, can complete the building up of US Army and Marine ground forces now underway.

These nasty people in Washington still have their hands on the trigger, and the financial desperation of the Empire is palpable. Another spasm of irrational and outrageous violence is certain, the only question is when.

From the imperial capital,

Chris Herz
cdherz44@yahoo.com