Is it the Economy or Foreign Policy, Stupid?

American voters and commentators focus a lot on the economy these days. The old slogan, “it’s the economy, stupid,” has been used many times in the past days and weeks, explaining that not foreign policy but the economy should be the number one issue. Although many American voters may indeed consider the economy the most important issue - especially considering the current crisis - there is something to say for the view that not the economy but foreign policy will be the most important issue facing the next president.

Lest we forget, ‘the world’ is not without problems either. The U.S. has problems with Pakistan, one of the main Muslim allies in the war on terrorism. Clashes between Pakistani and American forces have taken place near the Afghan-Pakistan border. Pakistan’s army and president have made clear that they oppose extremists, and want to destroy them, but the U.S. believes they have not done enough against the Taliban and Al Qaeda and has taken matters into its own hands.

And then there is Russia. Russia has embarked on a course that will put it on collision course in the coming years. A new Cold War seems to be imminent. Russia has decided to confront the U.S. in its own hemisphere (Venezuela), meaning that the U.S. will once again have to defend its interests in South America. At the same time, Russia has tried and will continue to try to bully former Soviet Republics and countries that were theoretically independent during the Soviet era but factually under Russia’s control, into submission. This while the U.S. is trying to get these countries into NATO and to focus on the West.

Then there is Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. And, lets not forget about Turkey and the Kurdish problem - the Kurds in northern Iraq are increasingly successful in creating a state of their own. Turkey is very nervous about this development because it could lead to Turkish Kurds declaring that certain parts of Turkey are part of ‘Kurdistan’ as well. As a result, Turkey is likely to act aggressively against the PKK in northern Iraq, and increasingly aggressive the more independent and strong Iraqi ‘Kurdistan’ becomes.

The economy is, of course, a major issue. But the next president’s hands will be tied. Congress agreed on a bailout plan today that would cost the American taxpayer $700 billion. That’s about the same amount as the war in Iraq has cost… from the start to today.

In short, the bailout plan will be a tremendous burden on the next president, as will the general state of the economy. All the grand plans both candidates, albeit especially Barack Obama, had for the U.S. economy, for society, for health care, for education, infrastructure, and so on will have to be put on halt. Whomever becomes president, he will sorely disappoint many voters who hoped that he would be able to pursue particular ideological policies.

But foreign policy is where it will all happen in the coming years. This is where the vote for the next president is important, where it will or last can make a difference. Both candidates have different visions for the world. Obama’s worldview is more similar to Bill Clinton’s, McCain’s is more in line with George W. Bush Sr. The differences between those two worldviews aren’t incredibly big - not comparable to the difference between George W. Bush and John Kerry for instance - but they’re relevant.