Thursday, August 7, 2008

Bringing up the rear both literally and figuratively is the land of Don Hugo

Bringing up the rear both literally and figuratively is the land of Don Hugo. Frankly it is easier to make a foreign investment in Cuba than in Venezuela. Hugo thinks he can pick and choose his favorites and is now cuddling up to the Russians and quasi-Russians at Rusoro.
It's not so much the blood rushing to his head as the oil. While the few unfortunate miners already trapped in the place try to make the best of a bad situation, no one else will go near Venezuela with a barge pole. This means that even "after Hugo" or in the unlikely event that oil goes down sufficiently to no longer prop up his economic scheme of things, the country will have no pipeline of projects. This would put it five years behind the game even if it were so disposed as to countenance getting real. It is well known that Hugo is ill-disposed towards the US, but he is now leaving even parties that were neutral towards him with their noses out of joint. Canada has long flirted with Cuba on the mining front and yet Chavez has chosen to kick sand in the face of the Toronto and Vancouver investment community. The travails of Crystallex (KRY) are something else again. While the company engendered sympathy for a long while, its single-minded persistence in chasing the Venezuelan mirage while abandoning diversification (it left the fantastic mine that Uruguay Minerals now own slip away) makes it look feckless and suspect of poor corporate governance. Another example, but on the industrial front, of Chavez biting friendly hands was his recent takeover of Sidor, managed to leave Argentina disgruntled. He may pay top dollar for the things he nationalizes but still the investors aren't there to sell out they are there for market penetration or economy of scale reasons. With the current administration's penchant for rubbing both friend and foe up the wrong way even stocks with a forcefield, like Rusoro, are ones to be avoided. In short, Venezuela is radioactive.

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