Victory for Chavez Seen in 19 of 22 States

Venezuela expert consultants predict today a triumph of President Chavez followers in the oncoming regional elections, including the loss by the opposition of rich Zulia state. German Campos, director of the poll group Consultants 30-11, estimates there is only at present three of the 22 states swinging for the Partido Socialista Unido of Venezuela (PSUV) and its allies in Nueva Esparta, Sucre and Carabobo. “The rest is red”, he said alluding to the distinctive color of the PSUV led by Chavez,in an interview for the program En Confianza of Venezolana de Televisión TV network. For Octavio Sanz, consultant of the survey company Datanalisis, the rate could be somewhat different as it attributes victory in some regions to dissidents of the PSUV, although he declined to elaborate on the issue. As for participation, Sanz forecasts an “abstention moderate to low” which could reach 30 to 35 percent, a positive indicator if similar elections like those of 2004 are taken into account, when there was an abstention of 48 percent. Campos, however, is less optimist in this aspect and considers that a 35 percent abstention would be achievable if they were national elections, but in these regional polls he expects abstention to be 40 to 45 percent. In the elections next November 23 something over 600 posts will be elected, including governors, mayors and regional deputies, in an atmosphere of marked political polarization. Chavez has asked his followers to make dust of the opposition at the polls and to achieve an overwhelming victory in order to guarantee deeper socialist changes in the process started in 1999. The opposition, on their part, hope to revert “Chavist” pre-eminence in the regions, stimulated by his victory in last December´s referendum which rejected a constitutional reform proposed by the Venezuelan president. Authorities, however, estimate that defeat was due to tactical errors, but Chavez´s popularity “seen like a air carrier” to regional candidates, is over 60 percent.