TIME: A Kinder, Gentler Hugo Chavez?

When Hugo Chavez took power and the world was first taking stock of the new leader in Venezuela, U.S. diplomats there counseled that the firebrand's bark was worse than his bite. 'Pay attention to what Chavez does, not what he says,' was the message to Washington from its people in the field. But after Chavez last weekend withdrew a controversial intelligence law in Venezuela, and told Colombia's FARC rebels that the age of Marxist guerrilla warfare in Latin America is over, many may be wondering if even the bark of the hemisphere's most prominent anti-U.S. maverick has begun to mellow. If so, the reason may well be that Chavez "realizes his long-term political survival is at stake," says Larry Birns, head of the Washington, D.C.-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs. "Right now, being a radical is not where the votes are" in a country that, despite its vast oil wealth, is wrestling with high inflation and even higher rates of violent crime. Chavez suffered a rare but stinging defeat last year in a referendum on constitutional amendments that would have broadened his socialist agenda and eliminated presidential term limits. Now, he appears determined to prevent his once feckless opposition from dealing him another setback in state and local elections scheduled for November. Those races will set the tone for later parliamentary balloting, which could in turn decide whether Chavez has the palanca, or leverage, to set aside presidential term limits. (Under the current rules, he's scheduled to leave office in 2013.) So Chavez has plenty of incentive to adjust his political thermostat and refrain from antagonizing his electorate.