He can't formally propose the referendum himself because he instigated the last referendum on the issue of re-election. That failed when voters rejected his bid for repeated re-election by a margin of about two percentage points in a referendum last December.
Having been re-elected in 2006, Chávez' dual term in office is due to expire in 2012. After that, unless the constitution is changed, he won't be allowed to run for the presidency again until somebody else has been in office for another six years.
The plan gaining ground is to make the referendum call via the National Assembly, in the hope of paving the way for an early vote, possibly by February 28 next year. Janeth Hernández, a director at the National Electoral Committee (CNE), whose impartiality is in question, said that she thought the idea was viable. In addition to the Constitutional illegality of bringing up the reform again, opposition analysts also immediately pointed out the juxtaposition of this "fast-track" with the CNE's year-long foot-dragging delay in their failed presidential recall bid in 2003-2004.
"Today, we begin the battle for the constitutional amendment," Chavez said Monday. "If we're going to do this, it's to win a constitutional amendment by knockout, and we need to do it fast, tomorrow is too late."
Amid all this, Chávez put some flesh on the bones of his aspirations in a speech on Tuesday evening. "I've convinced myself that I must remain some years at the front of the government of Venezuela," he declared, and went on to talk about being re-elected to stay in office until 2029. "At the latest, during February the constitutional amendment must be done for the continuous reelection."
"Chavez is trying to have the election amendment approved before the descent of oil prices begins to be felt and the governors' change in key states reaches a majority," says Alejandro Grisanti, who follows Latin America for powerful British investment bank Barclays.
For friend and foe alike, the prospect of removing the limitation on re-election translates into something like "Chávez forever" – a dream for some, a nightmare for others, not least of all for people like the opposition mayor of Maracaibo and formerly twice running governor of Zulia state, Manuel Rosales.
There's no sign of a let-up in the authorities campaign of hostility towards Rosales, who emerged as a prominent opposition figure in the presidential elections two years ago. While he failed in his challenge against Chávez, his 40:60 percent losing margin was rather better than many had predicted.
Today, he's seen as a centerpiece of the opposition, as much by many of his partners in opposition as by the government, as official actions against him indicate ever more clearly by the day. Rosales is due to present himself at the State Prosecutors Office on December 12 to face charges alleging corruption.
The campaign against Rosales borders on the vindictive, and this is not the only cause of uneasiness about Chávez' attitude towards the opposition after an election in which most other elected governments would have considered they'd done well.
The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) emerged in control of 17 states. The opposition, including Rosales' party, Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT), ended up with five states and Metropolitan Caracas. They're still heavily out-gunned in terms of power across the country.
Ceremonies at which opposition victors were to be sworn in were disrupted by red-shirted and at times violent government supporters on several occasions. Three people were injured when thugs attacked a meeting where newly-elected opposition Merida State Governer Henrique Capriles Radonski was sworn in last week.
The president is under suspicion of letting this happen if not actually encouraging it, as the tone of some of his speeches both before and after the vote might be seen to suggest.
Julio Montoya, a senior official at UNT accused Chávez of "once again making use of violence." He claimed Chávez was making Rosales a target in a campaign of confrontation and violence.
And amid all this, what do the experts at Barclays think about Chavez' chances for passing a re-election amendment? "We believe it will be very difficult for Chavez to gain approval for the amendment, and as long as his government does not focus on management, it could lose more political spaces. The freedoms that have characterized Chavez's government the past few years, thanks to increasing oil prices, will change drastically in 2009, in our view," concludes Grisanti. That process may have already started.
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