VHeadline News Editor Patrick J. O'Donoghue writes: There seems to be little doubt that things will hot up in Venezuela in the New Year. - First of all, the government and opposition have opened a political battle front on a constitutional amendment to abolish term limits to the presidency.
- Secondly and possibly more important, will be the outcome of constant skirmishes in state governments and municipalities.
Although the opposition won several important beachheads, such as the Metropolitan Mayor's Office of Caracas, Carabobo and Miranda states, as well as the Caracas municipality of Sucre, the government dominates the majority of municipalities and local councils throughout Venezuela.
Yet, despite the constant presence of President Chavez in Zulia State over the last year and an injection of funds for important infrastructure works, he was unable to secure for the first time in 10 years the state governorship and even went so far as losing the important Maracaibo Mayor's Office.
It is also becoming clear that funds will be arriving through multilateral organizations, such as the Andean Community Fund (CAF) and via third-flag channels from USA old faithfuls that have already lost millions of dollars to incompetent and corrupt domestic lackeys.
During the year then, we expect to see a new development: the re-emergence of sleeper non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that once dominated and ruled the civil sector in the decade before the arrival of President Chavez. They will gobble up the new flow of funds as advisers and social flag bearers for Ledezma, Capriles Radonski, Ocariz and others. But we will be seeing newer NGOs vying for power and control.
The current battle campaign raging revolves around who can solve the garbage problem in Caracas. On the government side, Jorge Rodriguez is the lone ranger confronting Ledezma and the four opposition run municipalities. Perhaps the garbage problem is greater than any of the contenders as opposition Sucre Mayor, Carlos Ocariz discovered to his cost after the Christmas holiday with the streets littered with Christmas rubbish.
One doesn't need to be much of a diviner to forecast that this year will see greater political violence as both sides struggle for power to control the streets, especially in barrio areas of the main cities, not forgetting campaign pledges to drastically lower common homicide and crime rates.
Violence in the countryside will continue as usual, largely unreported, with the deaths of more pro-government peasant and small farmer leaders.
The coming struggle must be put within the context of the economic crisis, which will indeed affect Venezuela, whatever the government says. It could be a blessing in disguise for the government, if the many Socialist enterprises and cooperatives in the countryside start pulling their weight and producing. The same can be said for the mainly disappointing communal councils, which, it must be admitted, have not, on the whole, been good administrators of monies received.
There are some people who are calling for a dialogue between both sides for the good of Venezuela but there is little indication that either side is willing to enter into negotiations. There is no way that the opposition will tolerate participative democracy and it remains to be seen whether the majority of people supporting President Chavez will be satisfied with representative democracy.
Chavez has acknowledged the reality of many, the so-called "ni-nis," who support his achievements but who do not agree with his tirades, improvisation and tendency to support sycophants and yes-men. After ten years, what has he left to offer them politically, other than genuine purges?
Of course, the Armed Force will be a key element in developments next year, especially the role of the reservists, of whom little has been heard during the past year and during the electoral campaign.
The advance of Socialism in Venezuela is in the balance and depending on the leadership of the PSUV and la conciencia del pueblo could end 2009 on a sound footing or the slippery slope.
patrick.vheadline@gmail.com
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Venezuela is facing the most difficult period of its history with honest reporters crippled by sectarianism on top of rampant corruption within the administration and beyond, aided and abetted by criminal forces in the US and Spanish governments which cannot accept the sovereignty of the Venezuelan people to decide over their own future.
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