Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who has governed the country since 1999, plans to seek reelection until 2019, or even 2021.
"You have my authorisation to begin a national debate and actions in the National Assembly (legislature), and God willing and if my health allows it, I am ready to be with you until 2019 or 2021, whatever the people want," the president told thousands of supporters during a rally that was simultaneously broadcast to the nation Sunday.
Chávez has thus launched a "revolutionary counterattack" against the opposition, who won the governments of five of Venezuela’s 23 states in the Nov. 23 elections, as well as the mayor’s office in Caracas.
"If we are going to do it, let’s do it now, quickly. Let’s launch the battle for the constitutional amendment on Dec. 1. And I want to urge you, because I will get involved: let’s win an overwhelming victory, a knockout," he said Monday, in another nationally broadcast message, which he ordered for the swearing-in ceremonies of governors who are his allies.
"Time plays against him," pollster Luis Vicente Léon told IPS. "Now that the opposition governs rich, populous states, he will soon seek to push through a referendum on reelection, because Venezuela has spent the last year immersed in an electoral process and we didn’t notice that the price of oil plunged from nearly 150 dollars to around 40 dollars a barrel."
Chávez "might be forced to adopt unpopular spending cuts to confront the crisis," added León, director of Datanálisis, a public opinion firm in Caracas.
"Before the crisis hits hard and the outcome of the (Nov. 23 regional and municipal) elections translates into a positive climate for the opposition, Chávez is sticking a foot in the door and bringing up the possibility of reelection, so that someone will (formally) propose and develop it," political scientist John Magdaleno, at the Simón Bolívar University in Caracas, commented to IPS.
The president told foreign correspondents a week ago that he himself would not propose reelection, but he left open the possibility of his followers doing so.
However, because of the control he exercises over his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), to which most of the members of the different branches of government belong, the "authorisation" voiced by Chávez on Sunday should be read as a green light to his followers to quickly start pushing for an amendment of the constitution that would make it possible for Chávez to stand for reelection to a third, and even fourth, term.
Chávez said he made his decision when he received reports that supporters of opposition governors elected in some states "have attacked and tried to kick out Cuban doctors from the homes where they are living, and have tried to shut down educational centres, food markets and other social projects."
The president was referring to possible reprisals against the broad range of social programmes his administration has implemented, ranging from free primary health care provided by Cuban doctors in poor neighbourhoods, to an adult literacy campaign, soup kitchens, and a chain of shops that sell food and basic items at heavily subsidised prices.
"This is just one small reflection of what would happen here if those counter-revolutionary opposition elements take power again. Seeing what is happening and the threat looming with these fascists, Chávez will not leave. Chávez is staying; God willing and if he gives me life, I will be with you until 2019 or 2021," said the president.
The press reported protests held by students of a school for adults on the outskirts of Caracas, who are afraid the police station where they take classes will revert to the police once the opposition governor-elect takes office.
In other regions, there were street incidents blamed on Chávez supporters. And opposition governors- and mayors-elect in areas currently governed by Chávez allies have complained that local and regional offices have been emptied out, with the removal of computers, electronics, and files.
Outgoing officials in the Caracas mayor’s office and the regional governor’s office of the neighbouring state of Miranda, several of whose municipalities form part of the capital, have transferred the administration of dozens of schools, hospitals and health centres, as well as a TV station, to the central government.
"It doesn’t matter. Even if they only leave me the squirrels in Bolívar square, I am going to show that it is possible to govern Caracas in a different manner," said the social democratic mayor-elect of the capital, Antonio Ledezma.
Analyst Eduardo Semtei had told IPS that "Chávez will unfailingly seek an amendment that will allow him to run for reelection, above and beyond the results of the regional elections," in which Chávez allies took 52 percent of the vote and the opposition 43 percent.
The rest of the votes went to Chávez "dissidents" who the president has treated as traitors.
"The debate should be held this December, and I hope we can be voting on the amendment in January," said the president.
Chávez was elected in 1998 to govern for a five-year term, 1999-2004. But under the new constitution, he ran again in 2000 and 2006.
According to the constitution, the president can only be elected to two consecutive six-year terms, which means Chávez should step down in January 2013. But the president argues that "Chavismo without Chávez does not exist," to justify his aim to continue heading up what he calls his "Bolivarian revolution" based on "21st century socialism."
Encouraged by his 2006 landslide reelection, in which he garnered 63 percent of the vote, the president attempted to push through constitutional reforms in late 2007, which included indefinite presidential reelection and strengthened the president’s powers.
But the reforms were narrowly defeated by a margin of 51 to 49 percent.
In the Nov. 23 elections, 5.4 million Venezuelans voted for Chávez allies, 4.4 million for opposition candidates, and half a million for Chávez "dissidents."
With the last elections barely over, the stage is already set for a new round of electoral activity, because there are no doubts that the legislature, the Supreme Court and the election authorities will accept the proposal to hold a referendum on the reelection issue.
For months, experts in constitutional law have been saying, however, that it would be unconstitutional to seek an amendment on a matter that was voted down in the 2007 referendum on constitutional reforms.
"Legally speaking, voters have expressed their position on that issue," Central University professor on constitutional law Enrique Sánchez Falcón told IPS. "In the December 2007 referendum, voters came out against the proposal for indefinite reelection. It is not possible to put that question to a vote again."
Opposition leaders like Jesús Barrios, vice president of the centre-right COPEI party, hold a similar view. Barrios said "indefinite reelection cannot be established by a constitutional amendment, but must be introduced through a reform, because it touches on a principle referring to the structure of the republic -- alternation in power."
Manuel Rosales, who ran against Chávez in the 2006 presidential elections -- taking 38 percent of the vote, compared to the president’s 61 percent -- and will now be mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second-biggest city, said "it is an insult to people that we are already talking about a new election campaign, when voters are exhausted by so many problems, like the high cost of living, and are demanding solutions to pressing concerns like insecurity."
By insinuating that the next presidential term could end in 2021 instead of 2019, the president suggested that the amendment could extend the presidential term to eight years.
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