Possible outcomes of Venezuela regional elections

Venezuela votes on Sunday in elections for governors and state mayors that will test support for President Hugo Chavez's left-wing reforms in one of the United States' most important oil suppliers.

Polls show anti-U.S. leader's Socialist Party is expected to hold most states and cities but may lose some posts as voters show their concern over crime, corruption and inefficiency. Big losses would be a blow to Chavez, who wants to convince Venezuelans to change the constitution and let him run for reelection in 2012 -- a measure the opposition narrowly defeated in a referendum vote last year.

In the last regional vote four years ago, Chavez loyalists won in all but two of 22 states, although a few have since defected to the opposition.

Here are some scenarios of election outcomes:

CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER - "Chavistas" hold most states and key cities, including the populous state of Miranda and the capital Caracas. Chavez would declare victory and revive his plan for constitutional reforms to allow him to run for reelection in 2012. He would likely speed up nationalizations, land reform and the increased financing of grass-roots groups as part of his drive to build a socialist society.

CHAVEZ LOSES KEY STATES - With the vast majority of Venezuela's population concentrated in a few coastal states, a series of losses in, for example, Miranda, Caracas and the state of Carabobo would be a heavy blow to Chavez. Such losses would be a sign that, while still popular, Chavez's star is fading and would give the opposition momentum to seek to block his reelection efforts.

CHAVEZ LOSES SMALLER STATES - Keeping hold of a clear majority of Venezuela's states would be enough for Chavez to declare a victory for his "revolution" and push ahead with his plans, even if he lost several small states. The opposition could cast the result as a win, brandishing any gains as a sign of voter dissatisfaction with high crime, graft and unfulfilled promises.

SWING TO THE OPPOSITION
If the opposition records what polls suggest would be its best-case scenario result and wins as many as eight states, it could claim a clear victory. For the second year running, Chavez would have to swallow a defeat at the polls and and accept his self-styled revolution is losing appeal due to poor administration. Coupled with lower revenue from weak oil prices, he would struggle to revive his reelection effort.