Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?

Hugo Chávez’s radical course and increasingly autocratic Bolivarian revolution are under growing pressure from former supporters alienated by government mismanagement, food shortages, inflation, public insecurity and corruption. Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?*, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, says there is mounting resistance to Chávez’s push to merge his coalition’s parties into a new United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), and concern about his foreign policy and further concentration of power in the president’s hands. If he fails to compromise and govern more transparently and inclusively, November municipal and regional elections could repeat the dramatic political setback Chávez suffered when his sweeping constitutional reform was defeated in a referendum last December. “The pro-Chávez movement is losing momentum. It has become bureaucratic, corruption is rampant, and the government’s capacity to manage the country is poor”, says Mauricio Angel Morales, Crisis Group’s Andean region Senior Analyst. “Regional and local grassroots are increasingly disappointed by the top-down style of the new PSUV party, which also is under mounting pressure from the smaller chavista groups”. Many Venezuelans are dissatisfied with Chávez’s foreign policy. Massive arms deals, generous cooperation with allies and intrusive diplomacy throughout Latin America, including support for radical armed groups such as the Colombian FARC, risk isolating the country internationally.