The Venezuelan opposition has been criticized for not taking advantage of the major electoral victory obtained in December 2007, when voters rejected President Hugo Chávez's project to ''reform'' the constitution, an attempt to concentrate more power in the executive branch -- i.e., himself.
But as Sunday's elections for governors and mayors approach and with polls showing that the opposition could score key wins, there are signs that opposition leaders will not waste another victory against Chávez. After many mistakes and despite questions about the fairness of Venezuela's electoral system, they have learned that the only way to weaken Chávez's reign is via the ballot box.
Several months after Chávez suffered his first major electoral defeat, he managed to implement some of the constitutional changes that had been soundly rejected. Many people were puzzled and wondered why the opposition movement allowed Chávez to get away with this. Political analyst Vladimir Gessen put it best: The opposition failed to ''exploit the victory'' by not seizing the momentum gained with the December win to pressure Chávez and stop him from attempting to change the constitution. On the contrary, Chávez, the consummate political survivor, had just turned a political reversal into a victory, Gessen wrote.
A good political movement takes advantage of any electoral and political victories, but that hasn't always been the case for the Venezuelan opposition. But to blame the opposition for not doing enough to protect its victory after defeating Chávez's attempt to change the constitution is also to ignore some of the major obstacles it faces.
• First, Chávez's power still remains extraordinary. He has complete control over the National Assembly and the Supreme Court. By dominating these two branches of power, Chávez has made it almost impossible to oppose him via the judicial system.
• Second, opposition parties lacked the political power to bring people together to protest against these illegal changes. They succeeded in mobilizing people to vote against the constitutional referendum last December, but they didn't have the strength to defend this victory. Venezuelans are probably suffering from ''protest fatigue'' after years of participating in anti-government demonstrations. Many of these protests failed to bring changes, and in some cases they emboldened the so-called socialist leader.
• Third, the opposition movement turned its focus to the Nov. 23 regional elections, and sort of ignored Chávez's changes to the Venezuelan constitution. After the December triumph, the goal became how to assemble a united political movement that would oppose ''chavista'' candidates in the regional elections. Taking away regional power from Chávez became the goal, with the belief that this would be an efficient way to erode his national support.
As Nov. 23 looms, Chávez's foes appear to have finally learned their lesson. It has come at a heavy price and after many mistakes (for example, the boycott of the 2005 parliamentary elections that gave Chávez complete control of the National Assembly), but they have realized that change will have to come via the electoral process and not through violence.
By agreeing to join efforts and run single candidates, they have a better chance to weaken Chávez's grip. In fact, the opposition is running unity candidates in 20 of 22 gubernatorial races and in more than 200 mayoral races of the 328 that are in dispute. This is a good sign.
But let us not forget who Chávez is. He is an astute leader with popular appeal and a successful image-making apparatus. He also has survived and defeated his foes thanks to the enormous profits generated by oil exports, the political mistakes committed by the opposition and a good dose of luck. However, he has become an increasingly authoritarian and antidemocratic leader who is clinging to power at all costs.
Form a coalition
Despite having some popular support, there is evidence that Chávez's appeal is declining. An opposition electoral victory in the regional elections would energize those who reject Chávez's authoritarianism, and it may open the way for organized anti-government protests again. This would play a key role as the opposition movement prepares for the next electoral target: the 2010 National Assembly elections.
If the unified approach pays off, let's hope that the opposition would use the same strategy to form a coalition to obtain a majority in the assembly. A parliamentary victory could lead to a legal and peaceful exit of Chávez. If the opposition scores a big win on Sunday, it should exploit its victory and seize the momentum.
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