The local elections, which include 22 state governorships and over 300 mayoral posts up for grabs, are the first real test of Chávez's popularity following his narrow defeat in a referendum on constitutional reform -- which would have allowed Chávez's indefinite re-election -- last December.
Four years ago in the last local elections, pro-Chávez candidates secured 20 out of 22 state governorships, wiping the opposition off the political map. But this time around, polls forecast that opposition candidates are set to make significant gains. Predictions among local pollsters vary but opposition candidates are likely to win at least four states, and some polling firms are projecting even up to 10 states. While four out of 22 states may not seem much on paper, the projected wins for the opposition are in large, influential and populous states.
Teodoro Petkoff, a staunch critic of Chávez and a former government minister, believes the regional elections present an "extraordinarily important" window of opportunity for the opposition to renew itself and regain lost ground. The opposition appears more unified than ever before following an agreement to support a single opposition candidate for each post, a decision which has been applied in most states.
Chávez's photogenic ex-wife, Marisabel Rodriguez, has been attracting headlines in the run-up to the regional elections. Rodriguez, a 43-year-old journalist, is standing for mayor in her home town of Barquisimeto -- Venezuela's fourth largest city -- on an opposition ticket.
But Chávez and the ruling party he founded last year, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), face other challenges besides his ex-wife. Opposition candidate Pablo Perez is currently favored to win the governorship of the much-coveted and oil-rich state of Zulia, regarded as the country's economic powerhouse and its most important state politically. Zulia's outgoing governor, opposition leader Manuel Rosales, lost the 2006 presidential election to Chávez and is now running as a candidate for mayor of Zulia's capital city, Maracaibo. Rosales is currently under investigation by government officials on corruption charges and may face jail, charges he denies, attributing them to a dirty smear campaign run by Chávez against opposition candidates. But at least Rosales has not been prevented from running. A controversial decision has disqualified the young and popular Leopoldo López, mayor of a Caracas district, from running for the top mayoral post, considered the second-most important political office in the country. And according to Petkoff, in the run-up to the regional elections, the government's state comptroller general has barred some 400 people, mostly opposition politicians, from running or being named to political office on the grounds of corruption.
Where they've managed to run, though, opposition candidates are polling well, and in areas that could prove politically embarrassing for Chávez. His brother, Adán Chávez, the PSUV pro-government candidate for governor of Chávez's home-state of Barinas, is behind in the polls in his bid to succeed their father, Hugo de los Reyes Chávez. And the opposition is also poised to win an important victory in the municipality of Sucre, a part of greater Caracas. A win there -- home to one of the largest poor neighborhoods in Latin America, Petare -- would demonstrate the opposition's newfound appeal among the marginalized poor, Chávez's traditional voter base.
Perhaps most significant is the emergence of a new group of anti-Chávez candidates, the so-called "dissidents" -- former Chávez allies and PSUV party members who were ousted or voluntarily broke away from the party because of disillusionment. While Chávez demonizes them as "filthy traitors," "sell-outs" and "counterrevolutionaries," their presence on the political scene gives much-needed pluralism to Venezuela's democratic system by offering voters a third option, instead of the usual stand-off between pro-government and opposition candidates. Polls indicate that dissident candidates are favored to win in three states, including Barinas.
Chávez has referred to the regional elections as "crucial" and some analysts believe he will view the outcome as a plebiscite on whether or not to push forward with his "Socialism of the 21st century" project. As such, he is leaving nothing to chance, taking the elections into his own hands with high-profile campaigning on behalf of government backed candidates across the country. Earlier this week, he went so far as to threaten to send tanks into the streets of states that voted for opposition candidates.
Even though Chávez's own popularity remains high (around 60 percent), the gains forecast for the opposition and dissident candidates will leave him weaker, and show that after nine years in power, he is not invincible. "The pro-Chávez camp is losing momentum," concluded a July report on Venezuela by the International Crisis Group. The outcome of Sunday's elections will give an indication of just how much momentum the government has lost.
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