Caracas Daily Journal (Jeremy Morgan): President Hugo Chávez appears to have backed down from his high-profile threat to suspend shipments of crude oil and petroleum products to the United States in the continuing row between the state oil corporation, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), and ExxonMobil.
However, he hasn't entirely ruled out the possibility of stopping deliveries to the northern giant, Venezuela's biggest oil export market. Speaking during his regular Sunday broadcast - this time from the Orinoco Belt, the focus of the dispute - he declared: "We repeat this to the world, we don't have plans to stop sending petroleum to the United States, it doesn't form part of our plans."
Chávez tried to justify his earlier statements, which were seen in the outside world as the latest step in his verbal battle with the Bush administration - including a much repeated claim that senior officials in Washington are plotting to invade Venezuela, topple him and his government, and seize the country's oil riches.
"All that I've said is that if the United States, the imperialism, attacks Venezuela, to harm us, and tries to damage us as they have already damaged us, then we would have to take a decision regarding sending not a drop of our oil to the United States," Chávez said. Washington has repeatedly stated it has no intention of invading Venezuela.
Diplomatic observers point to the Treaty of Rio (1949). This commits all signatory states to defend any member who faces a military threat from outside. The treaty was one reason why Britain did not declare war against Argentina in its campaign to recover the Falkland Islands (Las Malvinas) in 1982. Had London gone formally to war, other American countries - including the United States - would in theory have been obliged to come to Argentina's assistance. London called the armed conflict a "police action" and the United States supplied valuable military equipment to Britain once the fighting began.
Ironically, PDVSA is selling low-cost fuel oil to poor consumers in the United States, as part of its propaganda war with the Bush administration. The less than subtle message in this is that the wealthiest country in the world can't look after its own less well off citizens. The Bush administration has shrugged its shoulders and allowed the deliveries to happen. "We want to continue helping the people of the United States and we hope their government respects the sovereignty of Venezuela and that the multinational companies come to understand that here there's a sovereign government, a democracy, laws and that there is a PDVSA," Chávez told his audience.
Venezuela's ambassador to Cuba, Alí Rodríguez Araque - a former boss of PDVSA - said in an interview published on Sunday by the conservative El Universal, that the country was not obliged to supply crude oil to ExxonMobil. In effect, what the ambassador was saying was that ExxonMobil, and it alone, was the enemy, rather than the United States as a whole. He accused the company of preferring "a rupture rather than an amiable way" out of the impasse, for which the contracts had made provision.
Ahead of Chávez' statement, there had been no shortage of warnings that suspending shipments to the United States could have potentially dire consequences for Venezuela, while the United States could turn to alternative supplies for about 14 percent of its oil imports.
An estimated 40 percent of Venezuela's oil exports go to the United States, where PDVSA still retains equity interests in four refineries. Two other refinery interests have been sold, but the president's vow to rid PDVSA of all its interests in the United States seems to be on hold. The refineries were custom-built to process the sort of heavy grade crude Venezuela produces. It would be costly to convert them to take other grades of crude from elsewhere.
In the event of further sales, PDVSA or the Venezuelan state could find themselves under pressure from the other partners in the refineries to compensate them for loss of business. The same considerations would apply in an outright suspension of crude deliveries. Arévalo Guzmán Reyes, an oil analyst, raised doubts about whether PDVSA could get along without ExxonMobil in the long run. He said production and processing costs with ExxonMobil were less costly and more profitable than the alternatives.
Jorge Piñón, an academic specialist in oil at the University of Miami, bluntly said it would be "suicide" for Venezuela to cut supplies. "It's difficult to understand Chávez and to know what he's going to do," he said.
However, he hasn't entirely ruled out the possibility of stopping deliveries to the northern giant, Venezuela's biggest oil export market. Speaking during his regular Sunday broadcast - this time from the Orinoco Belt, the focus of the dispute - he declared: "We repeat this to the world, we don't have plans to stop sending petroleum to the United States, it doesn't form part of our plans."
Chávez tried to justify his earlier statements, which were seen in the outside world as the latest step in his verbal battle with the Bush administration - including a much repeated claim that senior officials in Washington are plotting to invade Venezuela, topple him and his government, and seize the country's oil riches.
"All that I've said is that if the United States, the imperialism, attacks Venezuela, to harm us, and tries to damage us as they have already damaged us, then we would have to take a decision regarding sending not a drop of our oil to the United States," Chávez said. Washington has repeatedly stated it has no intention of invading Venezuela.
Diplomatic observers point to the Treaty of Rio (1949). This commits all signatory states to defend any member who faces a military threat from outside. The treaty was one reason why Britain did not declare war against Argentina in its campaign to recover the Falkland Islands (Las Malvinas) in 1982. Had London gone formally to war, other American countries - including the United States - would in theory have been obliged to come to Argentina's assistance. London called the armed conflict a "police action" and the United States supplied valuable military equipment to Britain once the fighting began.
Ironically, PDVSA is selling low-cost fuel oil to poor consumers in the United States, as part of its propaganda war with the Bush administration. The less than subtle message in this is that the wealthiest country in the world can't look after its own less well off citizens. The Bush administration has shrugged its shoulders and allowed the deliveries to happen. "We want to continue helping the people of the United States and we hope their government respects the sovereignty of Venezuela and that the multinational companies come to understand that here there's a sovereign government, a democracy, laws and that there is a PDVSA," Chávez told his audience.
Venezuela's ambassador to Cuba, Alí Rodríguez Araque - a former boss of PDVSA - said in an interview published on Sunday by the conservative El Universal, that the country was not obliged to supply crude oil to ExxonMobil. In effect, what the ambassador was saying was that ExxonMobil, and it alone, was the enemy, rather than the United States as a whole. He accused the company of preferring "a rupture rather than an amiable way" out of the impasse, for which the contracts had made provision.
Ahead of Chávez' statement, there had been no shortage of warnings that suspending shipments to the United States could have potentially dire consequences for Venezuela, while the United States could turn to alternative supplies for about 14 percent of its oil imports.
An estimated 40 percent of Venezuela's oil exports go to the United States, where PDVSA still retains equity interests in four refineries. Two other refinery interests have been sold, but the president's vow to rid PDVSA of all its interests in the United States seems to be on hold. The refineries were custom-built to process the sort of heavy grade crude Venezuela produces. It would be costly to convert them to take other grades of crude from elsewhere.
In the event of further sales, PDVSA or the Venezuelan state could find themselves under pressure from the other partners in the refineries to compensate them for loss of business. The same considerations would apply in an outright suspension of crude deliveries. Arévalo Guzmán Reyes, an oil analyst, raised doubts about whether PDVSA could get along without ExxonMobil in the long run. He said production and processing costs with ExxonMobil were less costly and more profitable than the alternatives.
Jorge Piñón, an academic specialist in oil at the University of Miami, bluntly said it would be "suicide" for Venezuela to cut supplies. "It's difficult to understand Chávez and to know what he's going to do," he said.
It demoralizes the mind having to endlessly read and listen to these professional liars. The sooner we all have an alternative media we can get 100% of our information from, the better off we'll all be.
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