Florida Jury Deadlocked in Venezuelan Suitcase Scandal Trial

A Florida jury said it's deadlocked in the case of a Venezuelan businessman accused of helping his government cover up the source of a suitcase containing $800,000 that sparked an Argentine election scandal. ``We cannot reach a unanimous verdict,'' jurors said in a note today at 3:59 p.m. local time sent to U.S. District Judge Joan Lenard in Miami federal court. The jurors have deliberated for 3 1/2 days following a seven-week trial. Lenard said she would send the panel home and have them return tomorrow. The case is U.S. v. Maionica, 07-cr-20999, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida (Miami).

Florida Jury Deadlocked in Venezuelan Suitcase Scandal Trial

A Florida jury said it's deadlocked in the case of a Venezuelan businessman accused of helping his government cover up the source of a suitcase containing $800,000 that sparked an Argentine election scandal. ``We cannot reach a unanimous verdict,'' jurors said in a note today at 3:59 p.m. local time sent to U.S. District Judge Joan Lenard in Miami federal court. The jurors have deliberated for 3 1/2 days following a seven-week trial. Lenard said she would send the panel home and have them return tomorrow. The case is U.S. v. Maionica, 07-cr-20999, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida (Miami).

Venezuelan oil reserves up 152.5 billion barrels

The certified oil reserves of Venezuela climbed to 152.5 billion barrels with the addition of 10.2 billion barrels in recent days, while estimated reserves total some 313 billion barrels, said on Wednesday the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum. 'With the addition of 10.2 billion barrels from the Iguana Zuata oilfield, Junín 2 Block, in the municipality of Santa María de Ipire, (central) Guárico state, Venezuela is ranked as the country with the world's second largest certified oil reserves for now,' said the Ministry in a press release. The statement stressed that 'in parallel, Venezuela added 826.5 billion cubic feet of gas,' EFE reported. International certification of reserves has been under way since 2006 in the Orinoco Oil Belt (located in central and eastern Venezuela). It is carried out by some 30 oil companies from various countries world.

Like the American Revolution from the British, Venezuela's Revolution in the name of Simon Bolivar is NOT going to be a walk-over!

VHeadline editor & publisher Roy S. Carson writes: Among the many hundreds of emails (some nice and others not-quite-so-nice) that we receive each day at VHeadline Venezuela News, is one from a regular critic Ed Dickson of Tennessee who chastises our "liberal eyes" on what the Chavez government is doing to his birth country... Ed continues: "Chavez has not done anything to my birth country and my family is NOT better off ... and he is running out of time and those who believed in him had to leave for Cuba."

Qualifying his position he adds "Chavez' socialism / communist party is over -- the people will vote for new governors, etc. and then his time is up..."

Another emailer writes that the dire moral, political and economic state in which the Chavez government has found itself is intrinsically tied to "the Venezuelan culture!" He writes that NOW almost anyone can steal (and get away with it)! Whereas, previously, "only a few had access to the grand stealing machine." He explains that in this way the "redistribution of wealth" ... really gets up the noses of the 'sifrinos' (rich classes) and, more importantly, makes the ordinary honest and innocent grassroots citizens of Venezuela very, very angry!

"Transitions, transition, transition ... that's how I see it," he says after spending six months or more in the border badlands along the Venezuelan-Colombian border. "The 'cultural machine' is so gargantuan, so ingrained, that it will only be the sons and daughters, or perhaps even the grandsons and granddaughters, who, over time and education in basic humanities, who will PERHAPS clean up the system!"

YES! We must first recognize that President Hugo Chavez Frias' original dream for a more egalitarian Venezuela, away from the crass inhumane abuses and exploitations of the previous fifty or more years, has gone completely off the rails ... NOT by any lack of ambition on Chavez' part, although he has been thwarted hour by hour and day by day through each every living minute of the last ten years since he was elected overwhelmingly in the December 1998 polls.

...and while, it must be admitted that some perceptions of what is happening in Venezuela may (erroneously) contend that Chavez' overall plan is to impose Communism in Venezuela, it is as far from reality as you can possibly get. Anyone who knows Venezuela and Venezuelans will readily assure you that Venezuelans are the least likely ever to be converted to evil Communism! It's simply NOT in their cultural make-up as a warm, hospitable and extremely friendly people.

At the same time, it is NOT to say that they are not capable of Socialism ... although the "S" word equate with Joe McCarthy reds-under-the-bed paranoia in many North American minds forgetful of the fact that their anglophonic soul mates across "The Pond" in Olde England have embraced the "S" word without throwing themselves in sheer desperation into the River Thames because of it.

• And what about Sarkozy's France or Merkel's Germany, brimming over with social democracy in alliance with her CDU!

YES! Admittedly, Chavez does pal around with Communism's geriatric Santa Claus, Fidel Castro Ruz, and his rhetoric does, indeed, rudely cast aspersions on Bush's neo-nazi tendencies for world domination! But, hey! Should we be blinded to the lunatic current resident at the White House just because of some confused mythology that the "S"-word is synonymous with the provenly-antiquated "C"-word.

This is, after all the 21st Century ... and 21st Century Socialism is here to stay ... especially now that Capitalism (the other "C"-word!) has shown itself to be just as, if not more so, brutal than any Stalinistic version of the the former?

Setting aside the paranoia, however, we must recognize that President Hugo Chavez Frias version of 21st Century Socialism has run slap bang into a brick wall and it is mostly his own fault for NOT recognizing (or doing anything about) the saboteurs and administrational incompetents in his own backyard. He's been concentrating too much on what he strongly believes that Bush and his thugs are easily capable of ... and it's not as if Bush hasn't already tried his Texan darn'dest to dislodge democracy from Venezuela and South America (as well as the rest of the world) already!

Chavez' duplicitous mentors are keeping him more than busy with manufactured paranoia all of their own ... convincing the man, who is only human after all, that he's one step away from an assassin's bullet, a blade of steel in his back or a few grams of Semtex away from oblivion!

It's VERY convenient for the ministerial and ambassadorial traitors in Chavez' administration to "keep the boss busy" while they do their own dirty self-enrichment deals behind the scenes as through there's no tomorrow -- at least no day of reckoning to dawn on them before they debunk somewhere (most probably Stateside) from whence, conveniently, they may not be so easily extradited.

All the while, Venezuelan embassy officials shed bucket-loads of crocodile tears over the fact that proven terrorist Luis Posada Carriles enjoys luxury ex-CIA hitman retirement in Miami Dade County rather than face the horrors of luxury house arrest in Venezuela for blowing 170 or so souls out of the skies thirty odd years ago! Life sure sucks doesn't it!

Ed Dickson's fears for his birth country are indeed justified ... and, indeed, he has come up with the probable solution! The November 23 elections, at local and regional level, will decide what's next on Chavez' agenda.

IF -- and only IF -- he can regain popular grassroots support to finally implement the bottom-to-top form of democratic government to which he once upon a time nailed himself to the mast, there's a chance for his own, personal political survival.

IF -- and only IF -- he can be shown that he MUST accept the form of pluralist political support he keeps on ranting about, he will be able to get rid of the current dross that infects his administration and begin a new stage of 21st Century Socialism based on pluralist consensus --- which is about as far removed from Stalinistic communist dictatorship as you can possibly get!

Whay we DO know is that he keeps on harping about his famous 3Rs policy of (rectification, reform, reactivation) which has run off the runway already, quite simply because of the mass of scheming and false-flagged 'Chavistas' who've been gnawing the flesh of the very bones of his Bolivarian Revolution with complete and utter disregard for the ordinary honest and hard-working grassroots people of Venezuela that they're supposed to serve.

Like the American Revolution from the British, Venezuela's Revolution in the name of Simon Bolivar is NOT going to be a walk-over!

Our fervent hope is, though, that it will not take a brutal and bloody Civil War to bring about the necessary changes where all Venezuelan men and women are to be considered equal in the pursuit of happiness.

Venezuela, today, in many ways, resembles the old 'Wild West' of cowboy legend where lives, shackled under a culture of extreme violence and constant bloodshed, must be nurtured back to common decency and concern for fellow kind.

• If Venezuela is, indeed, to prosper, the criminal gangs, corruption and lawlessness must be rigorously contained.

VHeadline Venezuela News reiterates its editorial stance in support of Venezuela's democracy, constitutionality and the rule of law. The government itself must be the leader in respect for democracy, in total respect for constitutionality and in total compliance with the rule of law.

With those ingredients currently missing, the question remains open if Chavez Frias is indeed the man for the job!

He's the democratically-elected President of Venezuela -- ALL of Venezuela -- and must therefore command (and re-gain) the respect of ALL Venezuelans who, themselves, must urge his full compliance with the tenets of Venezuelan democracy, constitutionality and the rule of law.

If he can NOT, himself, abide by these three, there is no hope!

And that is why we, responsibly, urge the President to set about immediately to implement his own 3Rs -- rectification, reform, reactivation -- and not to delay a minute or one second more.

Venezuela/Venezuelans need the remedial action and they need it NOW!

Roy S. Carson
vheadline@gmail.com

____________________________________

Venezuela is facing the most difficult period of its history with honest reporters crippled by sectarianism on top of rampant corruption within the administration and beyond, aided and abetted by criminal forces in the US and Spanish governments which cannot accept the sovereignty of the Venezuelan people to decide over their own future.

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McCain calls Chávez a dictator

The Republican candidate for the presidency of the United States, John McCain, described on Wednesday Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez as a 'dictator' and joked about the attacks of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, in an electoral event in Miami.

McCain referred to the Venezuelan Head of State after recalling that his rival, Democrat candidate Barack Obama is willing to meet with the 'worst dictators' citing among them 'Hugo Chávez, the Castro brothers and (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad.'

So far, McCain had never called Chávez a 'dictator.' Meanwhile, the US government always refers officially to the Venezuelan leader as 'President Chávez'.

The Republican candidate for the US Vice-Presidency Sarah Palin did call him 'dictator' some days ago. Chávez responded that he feels sorry for her because 'she does not even know what she says,' reported DPA.

Fall of oil prices will impact on Venezuelan imports, say analysts

Economy Oil analyst José Toro Hardy considers that the decline of oil prices is due to a "sharp slowdown of global economy. There is no doubt that Venezuela is "one of the most vulnerable countries to this crisis," he said. Toro Hardy, who participated in a forum organized by Veneconomía, a specialized publisher in the economic and financial area, to assess the potential impact of the crisis affecting the major global economies, said that when linking the Venezuelan production with the current price of crude oil, there are no doubts that the Latin American country will suffer a serious impact on revenues. "According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Venezuela's produces 3.3 million barrels a day. However the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that it produced 2.3 million barrels per day at the end of August," said José Toro Hardy. As a result, said Toro Hardy, the only sure source of income is the windfall of petrodollars coming from oil exports to the United States, which represent 1.2 million barrels a day.

UN agency: Drug shipments are increasingly departing from Venezuela

The largest shipments of cocaine shipped from South America to Europe, via West Africa, are increasingly departing "from Venezuela, not from Colombia," although the Colombian traffickers "remain very important in supplying markets around the world," said the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

"Increasingly, large maritime and air shipments of cocaine are departing from Venezuela, not Colombia, particularly those headed east to Europe, via West Africa. Perhaps partly as a result, Colombia's murder rate has been diminishing, while Venezuela now has one of the highest rates in the world," said the report released on Wednesday in the second and final day of the Conference of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Praia (Cape Verde).

"Most cocaine entering West Africa from South America makes landfall around one of two hubs, centered on Guinea-Bissau in the north and Ghana in the south," said the UNODC report.

According to the document, only a few air shipments have been seized, but radar surveillance suggests "a growing number of small planes are leaving Venezuela toward Africa on unscheduled flights." The UNODC claimed that the aircraft involved are often modified for the trans-Atlantic voyage by the inclusion of additional fuel tanks or other modifications to allow in-flight re-fuelling.

"Seizures of these craft have been made in both South America and in Africa. The amounts involved are large, with instances of between 600 kilograms and 700 kg seized." The report estimated that such shipments would be worth about USD 33 million on the European wholesale market. Flights have been detected to Mauritania, Sierra Leone, and Guinea Bissau.

China launch VENESAT-1 - debut bird for Venezuela

China has launched Venezuelan’s first satellite, Simon Bolivar (or VENESAT-1 - the UN official designation), Wednesday. Simon Bolivar was orbited by a CZ-3B Chang Zheng-3B (CZ3B-11) launch vehicle, which launched from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan Province at 16:53 UTC. Developed on the template of the CZ-3A Chang Zheng-3A, the CZ-3B Chang Zheng-3B is the most powerful launch vehicle on the Chinese space launch fleet.

The CZ-3B features enlarged launch propellant tanks, better computer systems, a larger 4.2 meter diameter payload fairing, and the addition of four strap-on boosters in the core stage that give an additional help during the first phase of the launch.

The rocket is capable of launching a 11,200 kg satellite to a low Earth orbit or a 5,100 kg cargo to a geosynchronous transfer orbit. The rocket has a total length of 54/84 meters and a core diameter of 3.35 meters.

The first launch of the CZ-3B took place on February 14, 1996, but ended in failure that is now known has the “S. Valentine’s Day Massacre” - when the first CZ-3B failed two seconds after lift-off and crashed in a near by village killing dozens of people.

Simon Bolivars launch was the 11th use of the CZ-3B, the seventh successful orbital launch for China this year and the 112th successful orbital launch overall. The satellite is based on the DFH-4 bus and is the first time that China has launched a satellite for Latin America. The agreement for the development, construction and launch of Simon Bolivar was signed on November 1, 2005 - for what was originally a launch date target of July 2008. The development of Simon Bolivar has been classed as “of strategic and historical importance for Venezuela and China”, according the words of President/Dictator Hugo Chavez.

Venezuela had an equal role in the development of the satellite, which will be used for government and military communications - it will also to give remote areas of Venezuela access to telephone communications, fax, videoconferencing, high speed Internet, radio, tele-medicine and tele-education. According to the Science and Technology Minister, Nuris Orihuela, the total cost of the project is 241 million dollars, plus 165 millions dollars for the construction of two control stations in Bolivia and Guárico (Venezuela).

The agreement for the launch of the Venezuelan satellite also involved a technology transfer between the two countries. Under this deal, 90 Venezuelan specialists have worked on the satellite - with the first 30 arriving in China on March 2, 2007.

These engineers acquired basic knowledge at the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and also received professional satellite engineering training, together with the second group of technicians that arrived later that month. Venezuela also bought military technology from China, and the two countries have made various agreements in the oil industry. The satellite itself will also be used by Uruguay, which is allowing use of its geostationary orbital position at 78 degrees E above Ecuador by Venezuela.

Simon Bolivar has a launch mass of 3,100 kg, with solar panels that have a 12.1 meters span. The satellite is equipped with 12 C-band transponders (radio and TV signal), 14 Ku-band (data and high speed Internet) and Ka-band (future digital TV signal). The satellite will be operational for 15 years.

Xichang Satellite Launch Centre is situated in the Sichuan Province, south-western China and is the country’s launch site for geosynchronous orbital launches. Equipped with two launch pads (LC2 and LC3), the centre has a dedicated railway and highway lead directly to the launch site. The Command and Control Centre is located seven kilometres south-west of the launch pad, providing flight and safety control during launch rehearsal and launch.

Other facilities on the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre are the Launch Control Centre, propellant fuelling systems, communications systems for launch command, telephone and data communications for users, and support equipment for meteorological monitoring and forecasting. The first launch from Xichang took place at 12:25UTC on January 29, 1984, when the CZ-3 Chang Zheng-3 (CZ3-1) was launched to orbit the Shiyan Weixing (14670 1984-008A) communications satellite. Simon Bolivars launch was the 48th successful orbital launch from Xichang.

Workers with the power sector urge Venezuelan government to declare emergency

Top members of Venezuela's National Federation of Electrical Workers (Fetraelec) urged senior government officials to declare an emergency in the electrical sector, given the repeated power failures and disruptions.

Early this year electrical workers started complaining about the gradual deterioration of the service. Trade unions have resorted to rallies, demonstrations, and meetings with the press and appearances before the National Assembly to warn against the current situation facing the sector. This is the second time ever since then that they have urged authorities to declare power emergency.

Ángel Navas, who is the head of the Federation, told members of the Committee on Energy and Mines, National Assembly, that the government should make a "quick and profound" diagnosis of the crisis and "act promptly;" otherwise the problems will continue.

During his presentation, the union leader reiterated that it was urgent to designate a high-level presidential committee, composed by the Ministries of Energy and Petroleum, Finance, Planning and Development, and Science and Technology, aimed at detecting the causes of the growing deterioration of the electric sector.

"This committee must prepare a report within a month, including solutions to the problem and the commitment to adopt such solutions. On the contrary, electrical failures and disruptions will continue," said Navas. He stressed that the crisis is "structural" since it has lasted for years and is "widespread" because problems go beyond operational concerns.

In addition to the infusion of resources to build new thermal plants and the recovery of old hydroelectric power stations, the suitability of the distribution network and transmission lines must go hand in hand, Navas said.

Together with this assessment, authorities should implement energy and environmental policies, secure the financial sustainability of the sector's plans, propose adequate fares based on production costs, launch an energy-saving national campaign, and promote rational use of electricity. The government must establish rules that prevent government agencies from having outstanding debt with power utilities. The government should also create the Ministry of Electricity.

If the world could vote in the American election, who would they pick?

Given that the American presidency is the closest thing we've got to a 'President of the World', people around the globe care dearly about who gets elected to the White House. If you're stuck in another country without a vote, you can only pray that the independent voters of America choose to endorse the same candidate that you like.

To give you some sense of participation, however, a website's sprung up to try and find out who would win the election if the entire world could vote. It's called, appropriately, 'If the world could vote!'.

At the time of writing, Obama's taking nearly 87% of the votes, leaving McCain on a paltry 13%. The site displays breakdowns of different countries, though, and American voters have also gone for Obama - at 80%. That suggests it might not be representative of each country as a whole.

In almost every country around the world with more than a handful of votes cast, Obama is winning. Notable exceptions include Macedonia, where 86% of the 490 voters have gone for GOP, and Albania, where 54% voted for McCain. Venezuela is the only other country where results are even close - with 53% of 751 voters picking Obama.

In the UK, we're backing Mr Change with 92.6% of 24,816 votes. That's what I like to hear. Hopefully some of the influence will trickle over the pond, but in all probability, the people it's likely to trickle to are those already committed to voting Obama.

"Kidnapping pact between Venezuelan police and paramilitaries"

Venezuelan police are collaborating with Colombian paramilitary groups and committing various crimes, Venezuela's Ombudsman said Wednesday.

According to Ombudsman Gabriela Ramírez Pérez, the police and paramilitaries are involved in the kidnappings of ranchers and farmers in Zulia, a state in the west of Venezuela and bordering Colombia.
This year over sixty kidnappings took place. Venezuelan authorities contribute these abductions to Colombian paramilitary forces.

'We have seen that the economic power of these groups has affected the Police. There have been many allegations that the Police of the State of Zulia is involved in this type of activity,' the official said Wednesday in Cartagena.

Venezuelan authorities have begun strengthening surveillance on the borders, Ramírez said.
Venezuela's National Government, run by the leftist President Hugo Chávez, has frequently said Colombian paramilitaries are active in Zulia, an oil-rich state with a strong anti-Chávez opposition.

Patrick J. O'Donoghue's news and views from Venezuela -- October 29, 2008

Venezuelan human rights groups report a sharp increase in violence and public insecurity and have called on the Inter American Human Rights Commission (IAHRC) to draw up a report and hand it to the Venezuelan State with recommendations. The petition was made at a hearing during IAHRC sessions. The groups presenting the petition are: Cofavic, Center of Justice and International Law (Cejil), Venezuelan Observatory of Violence and Venezuelan Observatory of Prisons. The groups point out that according to a recent survey undertaken by the Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis (IVAD), 8 of every 10 Venezuelans (84.1%) think that personal and public security is the biggest concern of citizens. The group monitoring violence states that in the 1980's Venezuela had a homicide rate of 8 per hundred thousand inhabitants. By 2003 there were more than 11,000 victims and the rate rose to 44 homicides. The current rate, they say, is around 49 homicides per hundred thousand inhabitants. Cofavic executive director, Liliana Ortega maintains that there were around 7,000 registered complaints against police officers and agents in 2007, of which only 6% resulted in arrests. The HR organizations confirm that the Venezuela continues to deny entry to the Inter American Human Rights Commission.

Replying to the charges lodge by a series of Venezuelan NGOs at the Inter American Human rights Commission, Venezuelan State representative, German Saltron insists that nobody can deny that there is an economic and social problem but, he argues, the government has created instruments to resolve the problem by applying a economic and social policy of inclusion to reduce poverty and has reformed the current model of police forces.

President Chavez has suggested to his continental allies to act with audacity to confront the financial crisis. The President says the crisis has forced leaders to reflect and act and make decisions to guarantee the future of their countries and the region's human and economic development. Chavez made the statement during a meeting with Ecuadorian President, Rafael Correa in Puyo (Ecuador). Countries of the North are responsible for the crisis and the catastrophe of the 20th century, Chavez maintains, and he criticizes their efforts to re-found the Capitalist system, which, he declares, must be buried once and for all. Solutions to the financial crisis which affect all countries of the world, the President continues, will not come from either Washington or Europe. South America's turn has come ... "we must reflect and act with audacity activating our own mechanisms and not waiting for others to solve our problems."

Seven police officers belonging to Lara State police have been arrested for their alleged participation in the murder of six citizens in Portuguesa State. Interior & Justice Minister, Tarek El Aissami says the officers have been removed from duty until the end of the investigations aimed at determining their responsibility. The six people were murdered on October 23 and discovered tied up with execution bullets to the head and other parts of the body.

The Attorney General has appointed two state prosecutors to investigate evidence presented against Zulia State Governor Manuel Rosales. Documentation against the state governor was presented by Maracaibo Mayor and candidate to the state governorship of Zulia, Gian Carlo Di Martino.

Patrick J. O'Donoghue
patrick.vheadline@gmail.com

____________________________________

Venezuela is facing the most difficult period of its history with honest reporters crippled by sectarianism on top of rampant corruption within the administration and beyond, aided and abetted by criminal forces in the US and Spanish governments which cannot accept the sovereignty of the Venezuelan people to decide over their own future.

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Happy 70th Birthday-- ¡Feliz Cumpleaños No. 70!

HAPPY 70th BIRTHDAY: FRANZ J. T. LEE
October 29, 2008
¡Feliz Cumpleaños No. 70, Franz J. T. Lee!

Below: (Video):
AUTOBIOGRAIA DEL DR. FRANZ J. T. LEE

ENGLISH -- WITH SPANISH SUB-TITLES

El Dr. Franz J. T. Lee cuenta su interesante vida y vasta experiencia política como luchador contra el Apartheid en Sudáfrica y sus contribuciones teorico-práxicas a la revolución bolivariana en Venezuela.GOOGLE Video: pinche abajo -- click below:

(English & Spanish: http://video.google.es/videoplay?docid=-2177398083997521077

A Brief Autobiography:
GALACTIC SPARKS, FLASHES AND EMANCIPATORY STARDUST
By Franz J. T. Lee
Per aspera ad astra!

Part I: Juvenile Incipience
Part II: The Age of Reason: Love At Every Sight!
Part III: Scientific Earthquakes and Philosophic Tornados

I Juvenile Incipience
A MEMORY, A REFLECTION, ANANTICIPATION

Raindrops keep falling .....1941.

A dawn. What a morn! Something is born. Mankind is mourning. Europe is moaning, groaning. An inner, innermost, profound memory. My first, conscious reflections. It's raining, a soothing, smoothening,natural music comes from somewhere, from everywhere, from above, from the zinc roof.

Raindrops clash and crashagainst the window pane. I enjoy how they tremble, how they shiver, how they quiver. Some creep down in long, irregular lines. Some hide behind each other. Others roll, storm ahead.

I'm fascinated; I am pondering, wondering, learning. In each one of them, mirrored, I see zillions of flashes, beautiful images of a fantastic world. I see many wonderful worlds, new awakening worlds, sparkling, silvery ones: some obscure ones at rest, some bright ones in motion.

Some I cannot fathom, others Icannot even describe. Raindrops, raindrops, everywhere.

Faraway, on the mountain slope, I see a majestic rainbow. I dream about my pot of golden gifts, but my pot has a shadow, a strange reflection, a multi-coloured lid. Does everything in the world have a shadow? Do shadows separate us? Are there worlds without shadows?

Towards the other side, there, huge mountains of shadows, of dark clouds approach. Look, look.

Each and every one has a silvery lining. What's behind them? Behind all this? The Sun? But, then .... "Fransie, get away from the window,you'll catch a cold."

Back to reality, to the world of do's and don'ts; back to what to do and what not to do.

That is a baby's question, the nuisance that frustrates naissance, the nightmare of a new-born. Yet, never mind, I will never ever forget my galaxies of magic worlds; I will always long to hear my enchanting music, to see my sparkling raindrops, to sense my dark, silvery clouds, to feel my gigantic rainbow again ... to touch my cool glass pane.

Perhaps, one day, very, very soon, they will return to me again, to all of us -who knows, probably in the morn's morn.

THE AFRICAN BIRD OF YOUTH
Very often retrospective inspection performs marvels; very tenderly it rubs refreshening tiger balsam on to the strained heart muscles. Soothlich, as Spenser would say, the innocent bird of youth au jour le jour daydreams about white inaccessible Himalayan peaks.
Alas! As time passes by-and-by, the fiery Owl of Minerva is forced to inure herself to more gray earthly climates, carefully to soar over authoritarian bypasses and patriarchal bygones. But, the eveready slogan of progress inspires, its clamor aspires: per aspera ad astra! The ideological seeds are strewn to the four winds, even the wind itself is already sown. What will be reaped?

Father God & Godfather

For the time being, the earthly and heavenly harvest is determined by God, by Father, by Father God, by the Godfather, by the Padrino, by Our Father. Childlike incipience believes, just believes in about everything which anybody or anything great spits around as common sense, or vomits out as the "gospel truth". Everywhere, at school, before breakfast, before passing away to Alice in Wonderland, the password is Jesus, Christ, Jesus Christ. The same is valid for swearing, cursing and cursoring. Youth, still filled with Promethean élan, which still wants to thieve the Fire of the Gods, impetuously storms headlong into Christianity, is more Roman than the Roman Catholics, more Catholic than the Catholic Vaticans.

The Dark Ages : Total Eclipse of the Forties & Fifties!

Yeah! Read the Catechism, the Holy Bible; study the Saints, the Holy Scriptures! The proof lies in the eating of the religious pudding, drinking the holy blood of Jesus, in the eating of his sacred flesh, of his divine body. Only then, the Child of Jesus can pray : Hic Rhodus, hic salta, here is the spade, call it a spade, here is wine, call it wine. Surely, as time flows on, Phoenix realizes the veritas in vino.
But also this cup shall bypass innocent Youth, also this Socratic hemlock will vanish into smoggy polluted air. Also, the Great Father, who makes History, eventually appears before the rational Court of Final Judgment. The Judge pronounces his verdict as Reason-In-Itself, as Rational Intellect, as Intellectual Reason.

Adolescent Whirlwind
After the "sigh of the oppressed creature", after the "heart of a heartless world", logically, follows the demolition of a world which needs illusions to survive, which progressively produces genuflecting Zombies, guided by Crosses and Swastikas, which fabricates global giga-profits from the "sweat of the brow".

The Calm Before The Storm
Certainly, who sows the wind, will reap the storm, but the pathfinder of every heavy storm is a cool refreshening breeze. Leon Trotsky, the author of Permanent Revolution, of World Revolution, shortly before his assassination in Coyoacan, wrote: "Life is beautiful, enjoy it to the fullest !"

The "Stations of the Celestial Breeze"!
Farm Labor, Karoo Desert, Skyline of Cape Town, Table Mountain, Robben Island, Sharpeville Massacre, Love At First Sight, Correspondence Studies, Factory Work, Slums, Christopher Caudwell, Studies in a Dying Culture, Plechanov, The Role of the Individual in Society, Marx & Engels, Communist Manifesto, Che Guevara, Guerrilla Warfare, Mao-Tse-Tung, Guerrilla Warfare, Yu Chi Chan Club, National Liberation Front of South Africa, Repression, Suppression, Oppression, Apartheid, Scholarship, Exile.

Spitting into the Neckar : The Roaring Sixties!
Many dream about becoming Cowboy film stars, then Governors, and then Presidents of the United States of America; other Presidents want to convert themselves into a "Berliner", much later, in the very same great tradition, another one wants to wage a "Desert Storm", wants to feel "chevere" in Caracas, and wants to win the "Nobel Peace Prize" as international womanizer.
Many dream about seeing Paris, and then to die peacefully, others long to lose their hearts on the Neckar, in Heidelberg, others wish to stand on the Neckar Bridge in Tübingen, and to spit into the flowing water below, and then, at last, to live turbulently ever thereafter! Now, in the Glorious Sixties is the time when Great Men, Great Revolutionaries, make Revolution, make History. Spartacus, Lenin, Trotsky, Jose Martí, Lumumba, Ho-Chi-Minh, Fidel Castro, Ernest Mandel, ...


The masses must be mobilized, conscientized, organized : Anti-Apartheid, Anti-Imperialism, Anti-Authoritarianism, Long Live Anti-eism! Writing revolutionary articles, holding mammoth lectures across Europe and North America, Addressing the United Nations, collecting funds for the South African Revolution.

Maelstrom of Maturity
Socialist student leader Mussolini becomes the fascist "Il Duce"; Cuba cannot remain a Robinson Crusoe Island, Che is fed-up with Kabila in the Congo, the peasants of Bolivia are not so revolutionary after all, the Soviet Union and the GDR are not so socialist after all, the ANC of South Africa are not so anti-capitalist as they claim to be, the Black Panther movement is not so ferocious as it seems; the Red Army Faction in Germany does not seem to accomplish the Armed Struggle in Europe; Black September does not change the obscurity of the Arabian Future in the Middle East.


What went wrong? Are Great Men not making History anymore? What is wrong with the great people, with the great races, with the masses? Is it a matter of being wrong or right at all?

The Age of Enlightenment: The Soaring Seventies !
Politics accomplished; University Studies absolved; Love at Second Sight; Dr. phil., lecturer at the Fachhochschule Darmstadt, publishing "Südafrika vor der Revolution ?", "Technische Intelligenz und Klassenkampf" in S. Fischer-Verlag. A Friend for life. What Now ? Quo Vadis ? One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward?

George Orwell calls. "The Future lies in the Proles !" (Winston). Big Brother warns: "You are the last human being. Your kind is extinct!" The Holy Bible chants: "Who has ears to hear, let him hear!" Phoenix, however, is as blind as a bat; he claims that bats need neither eyes to see nor ears to hear!

Frantz Fanon, the Wretched of the Earth, invite to learn the next lesson of life. Régis Debray ushers in the "Revolution in the Revolution". What he meant by this, will only become clear when he is "bourgeoisified" later in the French Government. The same applies for Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the ardent student leader who stormed Paris in the sixties, and who later democratically co-operated, together with The Greens, in the Frankfurt City local government.

Experience has its Price, its Prize!
Paradise Lost, Paradise Found. Love at Third Sight ! Blue Bird, "Three Times A Lady!" Co-operative Socialism, Guyana, Burnham. A Friend in Need, in Deed, indeed. Tropical Heat, Racial Dust, Assassinations, Strikes, again Repression, Oppression, Suppression, .... Depression ! A Daughter Found! A Daughter For Life! Like Mother, like Daughter! Neither Great Races nor Small Races make Revolution, make History, emancipate themselves! Why? What did Plechanov say about the Role of the Individual in Society? No Answer ! Nigeria, Racial Discrimination, "You are too White to be a Black!", University of Port Harcourt, Professor of Political Science...

The Age of Intellect : The Sobering Eighties!
Say it in Spanish! In Castellano! When in Mérida, try to do it as the Meridians do it! But, not all roads lead to the Meridian capital, to the Andean consciousness. Junior, A Son, like Father, like Son, like Mother! Again : Anti-Apartheid, Long live Bolivar! Long Live Che! Long Live Mandela! However, this Ole!, this Viva!, this Patria o Muerte!, have other roots, other connotations. Inter alia, they are deeply rooted in Roman Catholicism a la latinoamericana.

All over the medieval superstructure of the Madre Patria Espana still is taking its toll, still is infecting every walk of life, still lures to the bull-ring, still allures to the Vatican. Nobody can escape this fatal mental plague, least of all the "camaradas" or the "revolucionarios" ; the virus of the "theology of religion" invades all pores of "progressive" forces.

Marx and Che and the Pope meet each other here in Latin America; they give each other a warm comradely embrace, and all of them, in complete gentleman agreement and fraternal co-operation, eagerly participate in the world crusade of converting and conscientizing the poor, the masses, the workers, the proletariat, all human beings. Also, like Jesus Christ, like Che, like Marx and Engels, the mature Phoenix sets about to accomplish his historic task of mobilization, of conscientization. E contrario, when the revolutionary students and exploited masses were finished with him, he nearly gained a soul, and was heading straight for heavenly bliss. Finally, his very "comrades", many were already beyond any salvation, saved him and brought him to reason, to Reason.

II THE AGE OF REASON : LOVE AT EVERY SIGHT!

Sapientia and The Nineties
To become wise is to get cool, is to slowdown, to be cautious, very precise, more lovely, most lovingly, extremely dangerous. Why are some people clever, cui bono? Why are others so wise , que sais-je?

To be clever and to radiate wisdom are two different qualities, not necessarily two sides of the same relation, of the same thing. Vanity, irrationality and eloquence have nothing to do with Wisdom; confidence, especially in oneself, brilliance, genius, originality, totality and militancy more readily nurture sapientia. Certainly, the nitwit or blockhead, the Dummkopf or Dumpfkopf, is counterpoised to both the dexterous fox and the learned owl, but its real opposite is the payaso, the clown or tom fool. Concerning the latter, as the result of ideological info-war, the whole globe is already invaded by millions of these preposterous extraterrestrial creatures.

The tomfool gaffs like a threshing machine, spitting out ideological straw and strewing social smog in all directions; the clown is more excited, is restless and blind; his artistic delicacy is the tragicomical idee fixe, the eternal absolute truths.

The Owl of Minerva is mysterious, invisible ; in all obscure and vague matters she is in her element ; she is quiet, preponderant, mature, imperturbable, caring and careful, solid and stolid. Christ is dear to her, Marx is dear to her, but the flowing Truth is dearer still : in the Aristotelian tradition she hoots : amicus Plato, amicus Socrates, sed magis amica veritas !

The Bitter Lesson
Awe stricken all of us wander on this thorny road, along these dangerous rocky cliffs; some of us get our horns entangled in the arid social shrubs, and we reach the point of no return, of never ever being able to liberate ourselves; others with supernatural endurance outlive the devastating tsunamis, hurricanes and typhoons of our times; those that fall by the wayside
either liquidate themselves or they genuflect, make the sign of the cross, pray; and then leave the rest of the matter to the divine che sará, sará ; others are dragged along by the jolly carnival of politics and exotic sexism, by the currents of virtual reality and the circus of global progress and pleasure ; although completely encircled by hungry wolves and bloodthirsty werewolves, very few people succeed to build their humble shacks on firm earthly soil; only an infinitesimal minority of us can still find a little while to reflect, to think and to reason about, for and by themselves, to become wise.

The Bitter Lesson : Not the Information Highway, Only simple Acting and Thinking, About Yourself, By Yourself and For Yourself, Here and Now, pave the narrow serpentine track towards Wisdom, towards Emancipation.

What did the formal logical "Nineties" reveal?

Generally, a Man is decorated with a Prize, with a Nobel Prize, with a Distinguished Service Cross, with an Honorary Doctorate, because either he is a "hero", or in his field of work, he has done something par excellence , or he has "discovered" something brand new, for the technological progress and social welfare of Mankind. Thanks to these Great Men we enjoy myriad of luxuries of life, health and sanity! Also may they be eternally blessed for their good work and invaluable contributions to continental discoveries, military conquests, global
evangelization, statesmanship, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the Holocaust and Chernobyl !

I Want News!

What did a life, a death, a life a n d death of some six "decades", on some three continents "discover" ? What is new, what is up ? Any News ?

Surely, it did not perform miracles, it did not produce world wonders, nothing to be proud of, nothing worth any price, any prize. It did not climb Mount Everest, it did not jump around on the Moon, it did not even jump over the Moon. It did not write, compile or compose the Encyclopedia Britannica. It is not a walking "Brockhaus" or "Big Larousse". It did not fight in Vietnam or Iraq, however, it surely did experience many "Desert Storms".

Au contraire, it is a miracle that as a Relation, as a Bezug, it survived at all, and did not land on Robben Island or was thrown down a barranco. It is a great wonder that it still has brains to think and a spinal column to go in upward gait, it is simply wonderful to be able to act and to think independently.

This is surely priceless, one of the few things which money could not buy, cannot buy. In splendid flummox nights it does surmount its own Mesa in the Loma de Los Indios. This perilous adventure does not enter the Book of Guinness but rather appears on a revolutionary Home page.

Where have all the Flowers Gone?

In a world of massive ecocide, where the deforested Andes look like a huge Mars crater, where the evergreen Pedregosa of Mérida is progressively being converted into a stony, lifeless, tree-less cement desert, where, as a consequence, the steaming heat melts the zinc and asbestos roofs, where the tiles become white hot, and where, through the open windows, the wind howls like a starving wolf, where, on earth, will somebody sincerely be congratulated because in a desert region he has planted more than a hundred trees within two years? And, in a world, where water supply is a luxury, where potable water is a very rare gift of the water lords, who will notice the lovely and loving care devoted to these natural beings so that they may survive, may grow, may flourish? Who cares about Nature? Who has nightmares about global ecocide? Who feels hurt when he chops off the head of a chicken or reduces an age old tree to lumber?


Except, Woody Allen, who has noticed that this whole globe is simply a huge "Four Seasons" Restaurant?

In a world, where Money makes the Earth go round, where can one buy the time and the leisure to achieve the nearly impossible ? As stated before, this natural social relation cannot be found on the labor market ; it has no exchange value, no price, no prize! The above is ever new, is sempiternal news...

III Scientific Earthquakes and Philosophic Tornados

The Nineties : Earthquakes and Tornados

It is a time to rejoice :
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,
it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness,
it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity,
it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness,
it was the spring of hope,
it was the winter of despair,
we had everything before us, we had nothing before us,
we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way. ...."
(Charles Dickens)

Towards Bolivarian Revolution, towards Socialism?

A NEW SCIENCE, A NEW PHILOSOPHY, A NEW SOCIALISM

A NEW CENTURY, A NEW MILLENNIUM.

Jutta, Franz, Juttafranz, Franzjutta. Love at all sights!

POLITICAL TYPHOONS: From an attempted coup to the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela, to Permanent World Revolution, to Human Emancipation. ¡Uh, Ah, Chávez, no se va!

University and public charlas, lectures, discussions.

San Onofre, Paradise in the Desert.
Books, booklets, videos, charlas.

Left hand Jutta -- right hand Nery.

Práxis, Theory, Emancipation.
Yahoo Groups, MSN Groups, Trinicenter, Vive, La Hojilla, Despertar, Pico Bolivar, ULA-TV, Franzjutta Com, Franzlee Org, Franzlee Org.Ve, Franz-Lee Org, ... Clarion Calls anywhere , Toque de Diana everywhere!

La Lutta Continua!

Hasta la Victoria Siempre! Núcleos de Desarrollo Endógeno, Circúlo Bolivariano "El Momoy". Chiguará!

Award of the Don Tulio Febres Cordero Prize: Book of the Year 2008.

Franz J. T. Lee -- 70 Years in the Emancipatory Struggle, in the indispensable, untiring epicenter of an indefatigable life struggle.



Franz & Jutta towards the Rubicon.


Mérida, Venezuela
29th October 2008
http://www.franzlee.org.ve/pandemonium01340.html

Concern Over Venezuela's Russian Arms Purchases Could Be Misplaced

Venezuela's strengthening military and diplomatic ties with Russia have led to alarmist headlines announcing the return of a Cold War standoff, and raising questions about the impact of Hugo Chávez's arms shopping spree on the regional balance of power.

But even with the latest arms purchases, Venezuela does not top the list of the region's biggest military powers.

Since 2005, Venezuela has spent over $4 billion on Russian hardware, including 24 Sukhoi fighter jets and dozens of combat helicopters. The purchase of over 100 T72 tanks to replace older French models is in the pipeline, say Venezuelan military officials. Recent unconfirmed reports in the Russian press suggest that Chávez also has plans to buy Project 636 diesel submarines, Mi-28 combat helicopters and airplanes, and around 20 Tor-M1 air-defense systems.

Furthermore, the presence of two Russian Tu-160 long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons during recent military exercises in Venezuela, as well as Moscow's $1 billion loan to Chávez for weapons purchases has raised eyebrows.

Chávez says his arms spending is driven by the need to replace obsolete weaponry, as well as legitimate defense concerns. For years, he has claimed that the U.S. is plotting to overthrow him, and has warned about a possible U.S. invasion. A recurring theme of Chávez's anti-U.S. rhetoric -- which reached a new level when he expelled the U.S. ambassador to Caracas last month -- is the need for Venezuela to be prepared to counter a U.S. military threat.

But Chávez's increased arms spending, buoyed by Venezuela's oil windfalls, is neither extraordinary nor unique compared with other countries in Latin America. In fact, most South American nations have raised defense spending, and while Chávez's arms purchases from Moscow have captured the headlines, Chile has been quietly engaged in an arms buildup as well. Between 2003 and 2007, Chile ranked 12th in the world in arms imports. Last year, Colombia spent 2.8 percent of its GNP on defense, compared to Venezuela's 1.14 percent.

"Brazil and Chile still remain the region's strongest military powers with Colombia coming third," says Markus Schultze-Kraft in Bogotá, Latin American director at the International Crisis Group. "It doesn't change the military balance of power in Latin America."

More alarming than Chávez's big ticket purchases is the arrival in Venezuela of 100,000 Russian Kalashnikov assault rifles two years ago, as well as Chávez's reported plans to build a factory to produce his own Kalashnikov line. "The main problem today in Latin America is small arms and not the high-tech big weapons systems," explains Schultze-Kraft. "The bombers don't represent any sort of real threat to the region or to the U.S. It's the small arms that are problematic."

The question of what happens to the old rifles once they're replaced by the shipments of new Russian AK-47s greatly worries the U.S. and its main ally in the region, Colombia. Both countries suspect that Chávez maintains close ties with Colombia's FARC guerrillas, a long-running allegation that has led to fraught relations between Colombia and Venezuela. Both Washington and Bogotà also believe there is a real risk that the much sought-after AK-47s could end up in the wrong hands, be it FARC guerrillas or drug-traffickers in Mexico and Colombia.

Some observers argue that Chávez's high-profile arms spending in Moscow represents a show of force and bravado rather than a real threat. It is seen as part of a deliberate ploy to deflect attention from Venezuela's domestic woes, including soaring crime and inflation, ahead of what are expected to be tightly contested key local elections in the country next month.

For Russia, the strengthening of the Moscow-Caracas alliance is part of the country's broader strategy to expand ties in the region. "Latin America is becoming a noticeable link in the chain of the multipolar world that is forming," said Russia's Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin during Chávez's 11th visit to Moscow last month. "We will pay more and more attention to this vector of our economic and foreign policy."

Dan Erickson, senior associate of U.S. Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue, argues that the Moscow-Caracas military alliance is part of Russia's attempt to assert its authority and "exploit an opening in Latin America" amid receding U.S. influence in the region. "Russia seeks to reassert itself as a world power, which includes a renewed presence in Latin America, while much of the region wants to diversify its economic partners to reduce its dependence on the United States," said Mr Erickson in a report. "None of this favors U.S. influence in the hemisphere, which appears to be in free fall during the Bush Administration's final months in office."

With his well-known hostility towards the U.S., Chávez has become an expedient and ideal business partner for Russia, which is increasingly keen to irritate Washington following the U.S. condemnation of Russia's invasion of Georgia. (Venezuela was one of the few countries to publicly back Russia's latest war.) But with a global financial crisis and falling oil prices, it's unlikely that Chávez can maintain the pace of his arms spending, making Russian president Dmitry Medvedev's scheduled visit to Caracas next month an interesting barometer of the two countries' unfolding relations.

Anastasia Moloney is a Bogotá-based journalist
and a World Politics Review contributing editor

Venezuelan Mining Chamber (CAMIVEN) says world financial crisis IS affecting Venezuelan mining projects

VHeadline Venezuela News reports: Credit restrictions as a result of the international financial crisis is affecting development of mining projects in Venezuela that are sorely in need of venture capital, according to Luis Alejandro Rojas, vice president of the Venezuelan Mining Chamber (CAMIVEN).

In an interview with the Caracas broadsheet El Nacional, Rojas highlighted the dilemma of USA-Spokane (Washington State) based Gold Reserve (GRZ) which had ordered major machinery to mine for gold at the Las Brisas del Cuyuni project in southeastern Bolivar state, but has been forced to suspend the order because of the fact that it has not yet received environmental clearances necessary for the project to proceed.

The Las Brisas del Cuyuni project is contiguous to the Las Cristinas gold mine, owned by the Venezuelan government and contracted by the state-owned heavy industry conglomerate, the Venezuelan Guayana Corporation (CVG) to Canadian, Toronto-based, Crystallex International (KRY) to mine an estimated reserve of 16-24 million ounces of gold.

Gold Reserve's original scheduled investment was claimed to have been in the region of US$1 billion but will be reduced because of current financial considerations. Camiven's vice president explains that Venezuela's mining industry also has to tackle a global shortage of drilling rigs and is exacerbated by Venezuelan government arrears in granting environmental permits and the difficulty in finding funding for international banking.

Rojas also highlights a new Mining Act under preparation (for several years) by Venezuela's central government. While the National Assembly (AN) has not yet received any information or draft of the bill's legal text, he believes that it should be much in variance with a prior draft project put to public consultation two years ago. Meanwhile, he states that the eventual adoption of the new Mining Act must be in concert with the enactment of a number of other laws covering land-use and forestry, with particulat emphasis on the development of Venezuela's mining industry.

VHeadline Venzuela News
vheadline@gmail.com

____________________________________

Venezuela is facing the most difficult period of its history with honest reporters crippled by sectarianism on top of rampant corruption within the administration and beyond, aided and abetted by criminal forces in the US and Spanish governments which cannot accept the sovereignty of the Venezuelan people to decide over their own future.

HELP US TO KEEP BRINGING YOU THE TRUTH
http://tinyurl.com/n4fg

Venezuelan cardinal calls for ‘fair and respectful’ regional elections

The Archbishop of Caracas, Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino, said this week the Church hopes that the regional elections set for November 23 will take place with fairness and respect for all the candidates. “We have called for these elections to take place with respect, and we will continue to reiterate this call because verbal violence, insults and offenses are not in harmony with the spirit that should reign among Venezuelans,” the cardinal said. “There needs to be respect between all sectors of society and this is the message we are sending to all the participants of this election, which is undoubtedly very important for Venezuela,” he stressed. He noted that while bishops and priests should not be political, “we cannot lock ourselves in the sacristy,” because “we have something to say with respect to human rights, freedom, justice, and the truth that should prevail among all Venezuelans.”

End of an Illusion: 2008 The Year of Reckoning: Latin America’s 'New Left' In Crisis

Former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University (NY), James Petras writes: Latin America is entering a period of profound economic recession, financial crises, collapsing stock market quotations, prices, deep devaluation of its currencies, growing unemployment, declining revenues and the prospect of a prolonged socio-economic recession. The economic breakdown, which is still unfolding, affects the entire political spectrum, extending from the far-right Uribe regime in Colombia to the social-liberal Chilean and Brazilian governments of Bachelet and Lula da Silva to the 'center-left' regimes of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador and even to the leftist government of Hugo Chavez.

It is not surprising to see that rightist regimes, embracing neo-liberal doctrines and deeply enmeshed in free trade agreements with the US, following its path to economic collapse. The deepening crisis has affected, with equal or greater force, the so-called 'center-left' regimes of Brazil, Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia and Nicaragua.[1]

The uniformity of the collapse of Latin American economies raises important questions about the changes and claims of independence, decoupling and post-liberal models, which many regime leaders, ideologues and progressive US-European Latin American writers made over the past several years.

The collapse of what some writers have referred to as Latin America's 'pink tide' and other more exuberant publicists referred to as the new 'revolutionary regimes' (and other more prudent analysts called the 'post-neo-liberal' democracies) raises serious questions about the emergence of a new dynamic heterodox model no longer subordinated to the US.

The simultaneous economic crises in Latin America and US/Europe call into question the degree of structural changes that were implemented by the center-left Latin American regimes. More specifically, the breakdown focuses attention on the continuities in financial systems, trade patterns, productive structure and free trade policies with their predecessor neo-liberal regimes. The claims of 'de-coupling' put forth by the pundits of the center-left have been proven to be without substance.

Faced with the collapse of the center-left economies, their former ideological cheerleaders have alternated between a deafening silence and avoidance of any structural explanations, and/or to simply project 'blame' on the 'casino capitalism' of the US. The latter posture begs the question of the center-left regimes' domestic policies which opened their economies and made them excessively vulnerable to Wall Street speculation. Up to the recent collapse, the intellectual defenders of the 'center-left' had little to say about the Wall Street linkages, busying themselves with the temporary high growth rates, which they attributed to the 'new heterodox model'.

The problem avoidance and external finger pointing adopted by the ideologues of the 'New Latin American Left' reflects a fundamental misunderstanding or ignorance of what was really going on within these countries. They substituted emotional gratification at rhetoric flourishes and symbolic changes and privileged invitations to private soirees with the 'center-left' presidents over hard analyses of substantive policies and structural continuities. Disentangling illusions from reality is the first step to coming to terms with the existing collapse affecting the region and the disastrous consequences for the great majority of wage, salaried and informal workers and peasants.

The 'New Latin American Left' (According to Its Publicists)

Despite the extensive and, in some cases, profound differences in social structure, levels of economic development and sheer wealth among Latin America's 'center-left' regimes - their publicists, advocates and adversaries claimed they were breaking with neo-liberalism and pursuing a vastly different socio-economic model, a break with the past, a heterodox economic strategy which combined 'market' and 'state' in pursuit of what some claimed was 'Twenty-First Century Socialism'.

This line of argument defined the 'novelty' of the new center-left by identifying twelve areas of 'transformation' or change. The 'new center-left' ideologues argued that, in contrast to the previous neo-liberal regimes (NLR), the center-left regimes (CLR):

1. Adopted a new more socially responsive economic model that pursued 'mass
inclusion', cultural diversity and social justice;
2. Put an end to 'free market neo-liberalism' and replaced it with a 'state-market model';
3. Began a process of 'social transformation' (Argentina), a 'democratic and cultural
revolution' (Bolivia), 'twenty-first century socialism' (Ecuador), and a process
of long-term high growth based on fiscal responsibility and social justice
(Brazil);
4. Ended discrimination and exploitation of the indigenous people
(Brazil and Ecuador) and empowered the Indian communities (Bolivia);
5. Moved to replace dependence on the Western markets and ended Wall Street
domination through the pursuit of regional integration;
6. Developed regional political and economic organizations like ALBA, UNASUR and PETROCARIBE, which marked the construction of a new independent alternative regional economic architecture;
7. Promoted a new kind of participatory democracy in which the popular classes had a bigger direct say in the formulation of government policy;
8. Developed diversified markets, especially with Asia (China particularly), Europe and the Middle East based on greater economic independence, effectively 'decoupling' from the US economy and ending US 'hegemony';
9. Accumulated vast foreign reserves (tens of billions) based on promotion of an agro-mineral export strategy, thus creating long-term insurance against future downward
movements in the prices and demand for export commodities;
10. Amassed large-scale budget surpluses through fiscal discipline and avoidance of
'populist' spending on large social and infrastructure programs;
11. Pursued policies favoring greater social equality of opportunity, pro-labor income
policies, easy credit, increased consumer imports and increased spending on food
programs for pensioners, children and the poor;
12. Formed public-private partnerships between the state and foreign multinationals replacing foreign domination by equal partners and increasing benefits to the home country.

According to the promoters of the 'center-left' regimes, the 'proof' of the progressive, sustainable and dynamic character of these regimes was demonstrated by the period between 2005-2007 where high growth, high income, budget and trade surpluses and repeated electoral victories were the norm.

End of an Illusion: 2008 The Year of Reckoning

The success claimed by the center-left regimes (CLR) and their apologists were based on an entirely false set of assumptions and temporary and volatile set of structural relations with regard to trade, investment and financial linkages. When the onset of the financial collapse and economic recession first struck the US and Europe, the first response of the CLR was to deny that the crisis would affect their economies.

For example, President Lula da Silva of Brazil at first blamed the 'casino capitalism' of the US and claimed that the Brazilian economy under his rule was healthy, protected by large reserves and would be hardly affected. As the effects of the financial breakdown and economic recession in Europe and Wall Street deepened and spread to Latin America, the CLR regimes and their intellectual defenders adopted a different posture.

On the one hand they sought to deflect all the blame to the US financial system and thus avoid facing the structural weaknesses of their economic policies. On the other hand some writers looked to some of the recent regional organizations, like Bancosur and ALBA, as alternative sources for salvation or as mechanisms to ameliorate the effects of the crisis. Neither the CLR nor their intellectual defenders have demonstrated any willingness to confront the structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities of their socio-economic strategies over the past half decade. More specifically the CLR and their defenders refused to admit that the claims of 'change', and construction of 21st Century Socialism were in fact built on illusory assumptions.

The spread of the crisis from the US-Europe to Latin America is a result of the CLR's continuities of the neo-liberal policies, the maintenance of the same ruling economic classes and the pursuit of economic strategies dependent on inflows of speculative capital, debt financing and the agro-mineral export elites.
Despite the rhetoric of '21st Century Socialism' (Chavez in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia, Correa in Ecuador and Ortega in Nicaragua), 'independent model' (Lula Da Silva in Brazil), and the 'social-liberal' model (Bachelet in Chile and Vazquez in Uruguay), the above-mentioned regimes retained and even deepened the principle structural features and policies of the neo-liberal model. They remained highly dependent on the global market: in fact they all accentuated its worst features by emphasizing primary goods exports (agro-mining commodities) to take advantage of the temporary spike in prices. As a result they vastly increased their vulnerability to external shocks. With the onset of the world recession in 2008, the collapse of demand put an end to the big trade surpluses and provoked a big slide in all the related economic factors: Foreign reserves plummeted. Government revenues based on export taxes declined precipitously. Local currency was devalued as both foreign and domestic investors fled to what they perceived as stronger currencies and safe havens.

All of the CLR based their development strategies on a strategic partnership between the nationalist capitalist class, the state and foreign investors contrary to the populist-nationalist imagery of Western intellectuals. At the very onset of the financial collapse, foreign capital began its massive flight outwards and upwards driving down the stock markets in Brazil and Argentina by over 50% and forcing a de facto devaluation as local savers and investors converted local currency into dollars, euros and yen. With the onset of the recession in the real economies of the EU and the US, national capitalists and financial elites responded by reducing investment in the productive sectors anticipating a sharp decline in demand for their primary commodity exports. This provoked a multiplier effect in satellite and related domestic manufacturing and service industries.

The double exposure to financial shocks and world recession was a direct result of the one-sided export market policies pursued by the CLR. The leaders of the CLR paid lip service to 'regional integration' (ALBA, MERCOSUR, UNASUR), even setting up an entire administrative structure and initially investing marginal resources to the effort. The regional rhetoric was dwarfed by the ongoing and growing 'integration' in the world market, which remained the motor force of their growth. Given their deep involvement in the primary commodity boom, the regimes maximized the importance of markets outside of the Latin American region. With the downturn, even the regional integration scheme (MERCOSUR) faces disintegration as Argentina turns protectionist.

The temporary trade and budget surpluses were used to further deepen the primary sector expansion (expanding infrastructure to and from productive sites to shipping centers on the coast), increase the wealth of the agro-mineral elites, and encourage a huge influx of speculative investors who inflated stock valuations (doubling and tripling prices in the course of two and three years: Price/earnings ratios reached bubble proportions.

The reactionary/retrograde model of the CLR, built on the 'primarization' of the economy and the boom in speculative investment, was ignored by almost all Western intellectuals who were dazzled by and chose to focus on marginal 'populist' measures: Lula's $30 dollar (45 Reales) monthly food basket for 10 million poor families (who became part of his electoral client machine in the Northeast); Kirchner's promotion of human rights and 150 Peso ($50 USD) monthly unemployment benefit; Evo Morrales cultural indigenismo and 'joint ventures' with the international oil and gas companies (falsely dubbed 'nationalization') and Rafael Correa's declarations in favor of 21st Century Socialism and increased social spending.

The ideologues of the CLR failed to analyze the fact that these marginal increases in social spending took place within a socio-economic and political framework, which retained all the structural features of a neo-liberal economy. With the collapse of overseas primary commodity prices, the first reductions in government programs are directed at…the poverty programs that provided a fig leaf to the rapacious speculator-agro-mineral driven economic model. The entire 'left spectrum' ignored the fact that the balance of payments and budget surpluses, which funded social reforms, were dependent on the inflow of 'hot money'. The latter, by its nature, enters easily and flees rapidly, particularly in response to any adversity in their 'home market', not to mention in the face of a worldwide financial crash. Thus the already meager social measures adopted by the CLR were fragile to begin with, highly dependent on the volatile behavior of highly speculative capital and world markets.

The claim of the CLR that Latin America was de-coupling from the US market, through greater ties with Asia (China, Korea, Japan and India) and developing into a world power (as part of the BRIC bloc - Brazil, Russia, India and China) has been demonstrated to be false. Brazil's agro-mineral exports to Asia were highly dependent on world prices determined by demand from the US, EU as well as many other regions and countries. The deep world recession and credit collapse has profoundly affected Asia's exports to the US and EU, which, in turn, has led to a decline of Latin America's primary exports to Asia. None of the Asian countries can maintain their commodity imports from Latin America because they are not able to substitute domestic demand. The class polarities and class rigidities in China limit mass consumption.

Latin America did not 'de-couple' - it was part of a global chain, which tied it to the vagaries of the US and EU economies. The attempts by Brazil's President Lula to blame Brazil's crises on US 'casino capitalism' in order to deflect criticism from his policies of deep structural dependency on primary commodity exports and hot money is besides the point: The Brazilian regime's policies opened the door wide to the full adverse effects of the downfall of US speculative capital.

None of the CLR deviated from the neo-liberal 'export model' nor did they make any effort to dynamize the domestic market or mass consumption via redistributive policies. Industrialization was subordinated to commodity exports. Urban incomes between capital/labor favored profits over wages. Interest and royalties remained highly skewed in favor of capital thus weakening domestic demand. Support of the agro-export elite and the rejection of agrarian reform, undermined the domestic purchasing power of millions of landless and subsistence peasants, rural laborers and small farmers. Tax subsidies and incentives, not progressive taxation, eliminated the possibility of rebuilding social services (public health, education, pension and social security programs), which could have expanded domestic production and investment. The CLR did not invest in a production grid linking complementary internal regions and economic sectors. The CLR's investments linked local domestic sites to ports connected to overseas markets.

The CLR strategies weakened their domestic markets relative to the big push toward exports thus avoiding structural changes. This emphasis on social payments was contingent on the performance of the agro-mineral export sector of the big bourgeoisie. Even their 'social transfers' have proved to be unsustainable. Without the meager poverty programs there is little to distinguish the CLR from their traditional neo-liberal predecessors.

During the boom in commodity prices several CLR regimes, namely Brazil and Argentina, diverted billions of dollars in earnings to early pay-offs of their debts to the IMF and other official lenders, claiming this 'freed' them to pursue 'independent policies'. In fact the IMF was very happy to re-capitalize their treasury while the levels of poverty continued at alarming levels and public facilities, like housing, transport, schools and hospitals deteriorated. While some aspects of foreign external debt declined, others, mainly private foreign debt in dollars and Euros, skyrocketed, encouraged by the CLR. Given the regimes' high domestic interest rates, foreign overseas borrowing by domestic businesses rose precipitously and foreign speculators, lenders and overseas subsidiaries of US and EU banks loosened lending standards. With the financial crash in the US and EU, foreign flows of capital dried up and short-term notes were called. Foreign inflows turned into massive outflows, driving down the value of the currency. The Brazilian and Argentine stock markets fell by over 50% in less than 5 months (June-October 2008) and the credit crunch began to squeeze investment.

The crash in commodity prices, deeply affected state revenues as prices for copper declined by 60% (from $9,000 USD a ton in June 2008 to $3,900 USD in October 2008 and oil fell from $147 USD a barrel to $64 USD during the same period). What is worse, the decrease in the CLR's foreign debt was matched by a vast increase in domestic debt - that is borrowing from foreign banks' subsidiaries and local financial groups. The latter lent to the regimes by borrowing from overseas banks and thus the entire credit/finance chain continued to depend on private financial institutions in the US and Europe. Rather than reflect a break with the financial dependence of the past neo-liberal regimes, the CLR reproduced it via local intermediaries. Combined with the collapse of commodity prices, the financial crisis revealed the abject integration and subordination of the CLR to the empire-centered marketplace. The sustained fall in stock prices and the massive flight from local currencies to dollars revealed the entire precariousness and profoundly 'liberal' nature of the CLR economic policies.

The CLR regimes diverted the major part of their windfall profits to building up their foreign reserves to attract foreign loans, credit and investors and to cushion the effects of a downturn in the economy rather than in large-scale investments in human resources and the domestic market. As a result, the foreign reserves provide a temporary lifesaver in the face of the decline in revenues from export earnings. Nonetheless, the regimes are using the foreign reserves to keep afloat the private banking system and to pacify panic-stricken investors seeking to convert local currency into dollars and euros. As the reserves are depleted, the CLR are resorting to class-selective reactionary fiscal policies. Once again the negative impact of the financial panic reveals another negative ('liberal') component of the CLR strategy: its dependence on an unregulated stock market highly susceptible to any downturns in the valuations of commodities and commodity prices.

The CLR economic policies and the major private economic actors were deeply enmeshed in the world of speculation just as any 'neo-liberal' regime would be. The total absence of any popular movement oversight of the CLR policies was a result of their total exclusion from all governmental positions making economic decision (Central Bank, Ministers of Economy, Finance, Commerce, Industry, Agriculture and Mining). The claims of participatory democracy were revealed to be a total farce. Moreover, the CLR (with the partial exception of Venezuela) granted 'autonomy' to the Central Banks, eliminating Congressional oversight and facilitating closer ties between Central Banks and the private financial elite.

Conclusion

As the capitalist financial system crashes throughout most of the world and a global recession spreads from the imperial countries to Latin America, the leading center-left regimes are not immune to the double shocks. Because they opted for a primary commodity export model they are especially exposed and vulnerable to the rapid fall in world demand and prices. While it is true that conservative fiscal policies allowed them to build up their foreign reserves, thus providing them with a partial and temporary cushion to weather the first wave of capital flight and to finance dollar-denominated debt, it should be remembered that the other side of the 'prudent fiscal policies' was the neglect of the social problems and economic diversification. Poverty reduction, through investment in productive employment, agrarian reform for landless peasants and the development of the internal market, in the medium run, could have lessened the impact of the crisis in the North.

The attempts by Lula, Evo Morales and political leaders to pin the blame entirely on the crises in the imperial countries, ring hollow after years of their hobnobbing with the economic elite in Davos and focusing exclusively on trade and investment agreements with MNC, 'hot money' from Wall Street and betting on agro-mineral exports. The spread of the crisis in Latin America, from early 2008 onward, is playing itself out gradually. The high level reserves, the relatively high prices (despite the 70% decline from record prices), the temporary return of partial liquidity and the slight loosening of credit in world markets as a result of over $1.5 Trillion USD injection of public funds by the US and EU has slowed the fall into an inevitable recession.

What is crucial however is not where Latin America's CLR stand at any given moment in time, but the direction they are moving and the inherent negative structural features, which are driving the economies toward a deep recession. As the reserves dwindle and as the agro-mineral elites disinvest in the face of declining prices, a serious negative multiplier effect sets in, battering satellite industries and driving dependent sectors into bankruptcy. Equally important, the economic recession is leading to deep and widespread state spending cuts. Given the fiscal conservatism built into the personnel of the key economic ministries and central banks, it is highly improbable that the CLR will reverse course and run fiscal deficits, increase large-scale, long-term public investments, restructure their economies and re-configure the social basis of public policy.

By the end of 2009, Latin America's CLR will feel the full brunt of the world economic recession, precisely when its depleted foreign reserves will have further discouraged overseas and local capital investment. No long able to rely on its principle 'economic motor force', the agro-mineral elite to finance imports and lacking overseas investment and credits for its exporters and banks, Latin America's CLRs will be confronted with powerful pressures from below. Workers and employees losing their jobs, local banks facing bankruptcy, manufacturers closing plants and indebted consumers and mortgage holders with few assets to sustain demand and living standards will be on the streets clamoring for state intervention: From the left and from the right.

Faced with the collapse of the 'heterodox model' of neo-liberal 'primarization' of the economy with 'modest social transfers', two options are possible for the CLRs: One would involve large-scale bailouts in order to save dominant financial-agro-mineral elites. The regime could try to impose the costs on the backs of the workers, urban poor, peasants and public employees through social cutbacks, firing of public employees, wage reductions and large-scale reductions in public investments. The second option would involve a revival of import substitution strategy including public investments in industry accompanying the nationalization of bankrupt banks and strategic economic sectors and large-scale shift in state policy from financing the bankrupt agro-exporters to co-operatives, family farms producing for the domestic market.

The first option would, by necessity, require greater state repression, in the face of social resistance to cuts in living standards and would probably lead to the demise of the CLR regimes. The more reactionary right is in the 'wings' ready to seize power and confront the burgeoning social movements reacting to the crises.

The second option would require a major shift in the internal class composition of the CLR regimes, a rupture with existing political allies and large-scale social mobilization of the 'popular classes'.

The second option would depend on a fragile coalition of local business groups, manufacturers, debtors, trade unions, left parties and peasant movements - the emergence of a 'nationalist-populist' coalition (NPC) prepared to jettison the agro-mineral export model, to shelve overseas debt obligations and to pursue deficit financed economic recovery.

However, under the stress of a prolonged world credit squeeze and recession, the linkages between big and small capital with labor and subsistence farmers and peasants may dissolve and lead to demands that go beyond 'Keynesian' capitalism to the socialization of the economy. The latter option will be favored by the prolonged and deepening nature of the world recession, the further decline in foreign trade, the drying up of private credit, the decline of living standards and the profound and widespread discrediting of capitalism clearly associated in the public mind with speculative excesses, financial collapse, lost savings and the bankruptcy of private firms.

A final caveat: Though the world recession and financial collapse reveals that the center-left regimes were neither popular, nationalist, nor a break with neo-liberalism, this does not mean a near term turn to the left - for the simple reason that the CLR severely undermined independent class mobilizations. Renewed 'statism' of the right or left variants and obligatory import substitution policies may temporarily moderate the worst impacts of the world crisis. However, the failure of Keynesianism could lead to fascistic repressive 'restorationist regimes' or to a radical/socialist solution. In this crisis all political options are 'open' given the 'fragmentation' caused by CR regimes and the 'shock' of the depth of the crisis. Future political economic outcomes are not governed by any speculative notions of 'grand historical waves'. Political outcomes are contingent on the class struggle and the struggle for state power. The current unpredictable outcome of social struggle is a result of the lack of preparation by any left-social movements to take the lead over the wreckage of a world capitalist breakdown.

James Petras, a former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, New
York, owns a 50-year membership in the class struggle, is an adviser to the
landless and jobless in Brazil and Argentina, and is co-author of Globalization
Unmasked (Zed Books). His latest books are The Power of Israel in the United
States (Clarity Press, 2006) and Rulers and Ruled in the US Empire: Bankers,
Zionists, Militants (Clarity Press, 2007). Contact him at: jpetras@binghamton.edu

China to launch a telecom satellite for Venezuela

China will send a Venezuelan telecommunication satellite into orbit on the early morning of October 30, according to a spokesman with the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. It will be the first time that China has made a commercial space launch for a Latin American country, said the official. The rocket carrier for the Venezuela 1 Telecom Satellite will be a Long March 3II. The official did not reveal any details about the commercial launch, such as the prices of the contract and technical data and information about the satellite. According to the website of the Great Wall Industry Corporation, China's sole contractor for such space business, the country began its commercial space launch business on August 5, 1987, when a Long March 2C rocket carrier launched a micro-gravity test instrument for the French company Martra Maconi. In 1990, a Long March 3 sent the AsiaSat-1 Communications Satellite for the AsiaSat HK company into space. The Venezuelan satellite will be the 111th space flight of the Long March family, the 29th international commercial launch by China, and the 35th overseas satellite to be launched by the country.

Chavez opponent faces corruption allegations

Venezuela opened a corruption probe of a leading opponent of President Hugo Chavez on Tuesday with less than a month to go before nationwide elections. Attorney General Luisa Ortega said prosecutors should decide whether to file criminal charges against Gov. Manuel Rosales by year's end, throwing up a cloud that will remain through election day on Nov. 23. Rosales, a two-time governor, is running for mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela's second-largest city. Rosales denied any wrongdoing and accused Chavez and his allies of raising false charges to prevent his victory next month.

'They have always dreamed of taking me out of the political game,' said Rosales, one of four opposition governors in Venezuela's 23 states. 'They cannot win with votes, so they try to win with tricks.'

Chavez called for Rosales's imprisonment on Saturday, saying he's involved in a purported assassination plot. 'I have decided to make Manuel Rosales a prisoner,' Chavez said. 'He cannot continue in office ... He is one of those who wants to see me dead.'

The allegations piled up on Tuesday, when Giancarlo Di Martino, a close Chavez ally running to replace Rosales as governor of western Zulia state, accused Rosales of extortion and misusing public funds.
Di Martino also alleged that Rosales was involved in the murder of Julio Soto, an student protest leader shot to death last year, but did not explain why Rosales would be involved in the slaying of a fellow opposition leader.

Oliver L Campbell : Why threats and counter-threats are not useful

Former Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Finance Coordinator Oliver L Campbell writes: President Chávez has, on more than one occasion, threatened to cut off oil supplies to the USA if the latter threatened military action on Venezuelan territory. This is a highly unlikely scenario, but the fact Venezuela could cut off exports at any time has made the USA feel vulnerable. As a consequence, both John McCain and Barack Obama said, in a presidential debate, that the USA must reduce its dependence on Venezuelan oil.

It is really unfortunate the situation has reached this stage because reducing, or cutting off, exports to the USA is in neither country's interest.

Venezuela knows the USA provides an excellent outlet for its heavy crudes and proof of it is that, when it sold its share in the Houston refinery, a condition was it should continue to sell 230,000 b/d to Lyondell Chemical for the refinery. Similarly, when it recently sold the Paulsboro and Savannah asphalt refineries, it agreed with NuStar to continue selling 75,000 b/d for those refineries. However, of the 1,500,000 b/d of crude and products Venezuela exports to the USA , only some 1,000,000 b/d of crude are needed to load the various refineries. In fact, while CITGO continues to purchase some 400,000 b/d of crude from third parties, PDVSA need only supply about 600,000 b/d. This leaves scope for Venezuela to reduce sales to other clients in the future, which fits in with Venezuela 's goal of diversifying its customer base by selling to other countries. There is already a commitment to sell more oil to China and India at the expense of the USA .

Similarly, the USA know Venezuela 's heavy crudes are ideally suited for the refineries of CITGO, Lyondell, Conoco and NuStar and realise those volumes are not really at risk. Though volumes to other clients might be reduced, the USA could compensate by buying more oil from Canada , at the expense of Venezuela , as soon as Canada increases production from the Athabasca Oil Sands as it has plans to do. However, imports from Mexico may fall unless the Gulf of Mexico discoveries can be quickly developed.

A point some commentators have missed is that it is corporations that purchase oil from PDVSA and not the USA government. In a free democracy, it is most unlikely the government would instruct these corporations not to buy oil from Venezuela , and it is equally unlikely the government would prohibit CITGO, a company incorporated in the USA , from importing oil from Venezuela . It is also most improbable that the government would force Venezuela to sell CITGO'S refineries in the USA . Multiply these three improbables together and you get a very low probability that exports to the USA will be affected by any punitive action of that country.

Many assume oil is a fungible substance and that if you don't buy it from one country you buy it from another. But this is only true if the crudes have similar qualities such as gravities, or grades of API, sulphur levels and acidity, etc. Crude oils can vary from being light, and close to gasoline quality, to being extra-heavy like a thick, black tar. Refineries are designed to take different types of oil and CITGO'S refineries were specially modified years ago to process Venezuela 's heavy oil with a high sulphur and acid content. In fact, there are few refineries in the world which can so efficiently process heavy crudes as CITGO'S.

From an economic viewpoint, buying oil from Canada , Mexico and Venezuela keeps freight costs down. Though Venezuela could sell its heavy oil to China and India , and the USA could buy lighter oil from the Middle East , it would make no sense to incur those freight costs. Neither would it make sense to buy lighter, more costly crudes to run in CITGO'S refineries for which they were not designed.

Both candidates state the USA need to reduce their dependence on Venezuelan and Middle East crude oils, but if they don't buy oil from Venezuela and the Middle East , particularly the latter, finding countries to make up the shortfall will not be easy. The best ways to become less dependent on oil imports from those sources are to a) reduce oil consumption, b) promote increased oil production from Canada and Mexico , and c) open up exploration offshore and in Alaska . Longer term, imports from Brazil may become available, and the USA could produce more natural gas to reduce the demand for heating oil.

Mr Boone Pickens has come up with an idea which substitutes wind energy for electricity generation which in turn frees up natural gas to be used, compressed, in road vehicles. Then there is the possibility of building more huge solar plants like the one in the Mojave Desert . However, such renewables will only have a very small impact on oil consumption for many years to come. The fact is that, if Venezuela and the Middle East were taken out of the equation, the USA would have to take some drastic measures which would hurt its economy. Surely a much better option would be for Venezuela and the USA to mend fences and desist from threatening one another. In international trade, you do not need to love each other nor have the same political system to do business. If that were so, the USA and the West would not be buying electrical goods, clothing and toys from China .

To summarise, PDVSA could reduce or cut off supplies to the USA , but it would then have to sell its oil elsewhere. But there is no ready market for such a large volume of these heavy crudes, and the most likely outcome is that Venezuela would have to cut back its production. In the best case scenario, that China and India would buy all the crude available, the netback to Venezuela would be less than that from the USA . Similarly, the USA could reduce or eliminate imports from Venezuela , but it would then have to buy the oil elsewhere which would be more costly both in terms of the oil price and the freight cost. Neither makes economic sense nor is likely to happen suddenly. However, it is possible that, over time, both countries will decide, for different reasons, to run down the volumes traded.

Oliver L Campbell , MBA, DipM, FCCA, ACMA, MCIM was born in El Callao in 1931
where his father worked in the gold mining industry. He spent the WWII years in
England, returning to Venezuela in 1953 to work with Shell de Venezuela (CSV),
later as Finance Coordinator at Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). In 1982 he
returned to the UK with his family and retired early in 2002. Petroleumworld
does not necessarily share these views.